Buffalo Sabres
5-on-5 · model-estimatedSabres: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Rasmus Dahlin, Josh Doan.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
PDO 1.020 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
Team finishing is +26 goals above xG — shooting luck likely to cool.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Rasmus Dahlin
- Josh Doan
- Tage Thompson
- Alex Tuch
- Jason Zucker
- Zach Benson
- Mattias Samuelsson
- Josh Norris
- Jack Quinn
- Ryan McLeod
- Bowen Byram
- Noah Ostlund
- Owen Power
- Sam Carrick
- Tanner Pearson
- Josh Dunne
- Zach Metsa
- Michael Kesselring
- Peyton Krebs
- Logan Stanley
- Beck Malenstyn
- Jordan Greenway
- Tyson Kozak
- Conor Timmins
- Luke Schenn
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon | 36 | 90.700 | — | +0.0 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 35 | 90.970 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus DahlinD | 77 | 19.0 | +85.60 | +3.9 |
| Tage ThompsonC | 81 | 14.8 | +73.70 | +3.8 |
| Alex TuchR | 79 | 14.0 | +68.70 | +3.2 |
| Josh DoanR | 82 | 12.6 | +75.20 | +2.7 |
| Jason ZuckerL | 62 | 12.0 | +71.80 | +2.1 |
| Zach BensonL | 65 | 12.9 | +71.00 | +2.0 |
| Jack QuinnR | 82 | 12.9 | +52.30 | +1.8 |
| Mattias SamuelssonD | 78 | 18.9 | +64.60 | +1.8 |
| Ryan McLeodC | 81 | 12.8 | +44.70 | +1.7 |
| Josh NorrisC | 44 | 11.9 | +64.70 | +1.5 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 10th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
20 games with more rest than the opponent · 26 with fewer · 37 even.
6 games in 11 days with 3,575 travel miles
Nov 11 – Nov 21
6 games in 11 days with 3,225 travel miles
Jan 20 – Jan 30
6 games in 14 days with 4,972 travel miles
Oct 24 – Nov 6