Calgary Flames
5-on-5 · model-estimatedFlames: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- No standout edges flagged.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
PDO 0.984 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
Team finishing is -20 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- None
- Blake Coleman
- Olli Mtt
- Brayden Pachal
- Hunter Brzustewicz
- Joel Farabee
- Morgan Frost
- Mikael Backlund
- Victor Olofsson
- Matt Coronato
- Jonathan Huberdeau
- Ryan Strome
- Connor Zary
- Joel Hanley
- Zayne Parekh
- Justin Kirkland
- Matvei Gridin
- Yegor Sharangovich
- Adam Klapka
- Ryan Lomberg
- John Beecher
- Martin Pospisil
- Yan Kuznetsov
- Zach Whitecloud
- Kevin Bahl
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | 57 | 89.920 | — | +0.0 |
| Devin Cooley | 31 | 90.910 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake ColemanL | 69 | 13.3 | +71.50 | +1.9 |
| Joel FarabeeL | 82 | 13.2 | +57.80 | +1.7 |
| Morgan FrostC | 82 | 12.3 | +48.80 | +1.6 |
| Mikael BacklundC | 82 | 13.7 | +50.20 | +1.4 |
| Victor OlofssonL | 78 | 11.3 | +59.50 | +1.3 |
| Matt CoronatoR | 80 | 13.2 | +42.60 | +1.3 |
| Jonathan HuberdeauL | 50 | 13.3 | +53.50 | +0.9 |
| Ryan StromeC | 52 | 11.7 | +55.80 | +0.9 |
| Connor ZaryC | 74 | 12.4 | +48.10 | +0.8 |
| Olli MttD | 43 | 15.5 | +60.10 | +0.6 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 29th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
19 games with more rest than the opponent · 16 with fewer · 48 even.
6 games in 10 days with 4,805 travel miles
Mar 12 – Mar 21
6 games in 10 days with 3,162 travel miles
Nov 14 – Nov 23
6 games in 10 days with 3,148 travel miles
Oct 28 – Nov 6