STRENGTHDALfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 20 rush shots worth 2.08 xG.
70
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Dallas Stars
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): DAL 2 - 1 STL — a win over the Blues.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 2 goals on 20 rush shots worth 2.08 xG.
Stars: a balanced team (48.2% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
Season complete · final ledger
83
Games filed
51
Wins (all)
32
Losses (all)
281
Goals for
227
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · DAL @ STL · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionDALSTL
Offense
▸Basis
DAL Created 2.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.63 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.08 xG).
STL Created 2.95 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.67 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.06 xG).
C+
79
B-
81
Defense
▸Basis
DAL Allowed 2.95 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.67 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.06 xG).
STL Allowed 2.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.63 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.08 xG).
D+
69
C-
71
Transition
▸Basis
DAL Rush shots 20–20, rush xG 2.08–2.06 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
STL Rush shots 20–20, rush xG 2.06–2.08 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
C
75
C
75
Special teams
▸Basis
DAL 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.78 PP xG.
STL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.40 PP xG.
F
56
F
53
Goaltending
▸Basis
DAL +1.95 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.
STL +0.75 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.
A
94
B-
82
Discipline
▸Basis
DAL Took 5 penalties for 16 PIM vs 6 for 18 on the other side.
STL Took 6 penalties for 18 PIM vs 5 for 16 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
DAL Finishing -0.75 goals vs xG plus +1.95 GSAx of save luck = +1.20 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
STL Finishing -1.95 goals vs xG plus +0.75 GSAx of save luck = -1.20 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B
85
D
65
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGDALfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 2.06 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
68
IMP
STRENGTHDALfancoach
B. Halverson tilted the crease
B. Halverson stopped 12 of 12 (1.000), +1.47 goals above expected.
55
IMP
TACTICALDALfan
The moment it turned
Jack Becker's wrist shot from the high slot in P2 swung the game.
52
IMP
WARNINGDALfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-4 with the man advantage on 0.78 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
49
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGDALfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 2.06 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
68
IMP
WARNINGDALfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-4 with the man advantage on 0.78 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
49
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHDALfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 20 rush shots worth 2.08 xG.
70
IMP
STRENGTHDALfancoach
B. Halverson tilted the crease
B. Halverson stopped 12 of 12 (1.000), +1.47 goals above expected.
55
IMP
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseC+avg 79→ FLAT
DefenseD+avg 54▲ IMPROVING
TransitionCavg 58▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsFavg 82▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingAavg 83▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineB-avg 75▲ IMPROVING
LuckBavg 83→ FLAT
DAL latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Regression watch
- PDO 1.024 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
- Team finishing is +8 goals above xG — shooting luck likely to cool.
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
ELITE
Load index
97/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 2nd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
48,494
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
2,456 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d45
2d20
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
18 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 46 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 3,476 travel miles
Apr 2 – Apr 10
6 games in 11 days with 4,596 travel miles
Jan 4 – Jan 14
6 games in 11 days with 4,387 travel miles
Mar 3 – Mar 13
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach