Florida Panthers
5-on-5 · model-estimatedPanthers: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Matthew Tkachuk.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
Team finishing is -18 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Sergei Bobrovsky sv% 87.7% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Matthew Tkachuk
- Sam Bennett
- Sam Reinhart
- Brad Marchand
- A.J. Greer
- Mackie Samoskevich
- Gustav Forsling
- Cole Schwindt
- Carter Verhaeghe
- Anton Lundell
- Evan Rodrigues
- Eetu Luostarinen
- Seth Jones
- Aaron Ekblad
- Niko Mikkola
- Cole Reinhardt
- Noah Gregor
- Luke Kunin
- Vinnie Hinostroza
- Uvis Balinskis
- Jesper Boqvist
- Tomas Nosek
- Donovan Sebrango
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 52 | 87.680 | 66.670 | +0.2 |
| Daniil Tarasov | 33 | 89.510 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam BennettC | 76 | 13.6 | +71.90 | +2.7 |
| Sam ReinhartC | 64 | 14.0 | +61.90 | +2.5 |
| Brad MarchandL | 52 | 12.1 | +71.80 | +2.4 |
| Carter VerhaegheC | 77 | 14.2 | +59.80 | +2.4 |
| Anton LundellC | 64 | 13.4 | +55.90 | +1.7 |
| A.J. GreerL | 78 | 11.6 | +69.20 | +1.6 |
| Matthew TkachukL | 31 | 13.6 | +83.30 | +1.6 |
| Mackie SamoskevichR | 77 | 12.1 | +63.60 | +1.4 |
| Gustav ForslingD | 80 | 18.2 | +65.50 | +1.3 |
| Evan RodriguesC | 69 | 13.3 | +54.00 | +1.2 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 12th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
20 games with more rest than the opponent · 21 with fewer · 41 even.
6 games in 9 days with 3,585 travel miles
Nov 7 – Nov 15
6 games in 11 days with 4,726 travel miles
Dec 30 – Jan 9
6 games in 11 days with 4,600 travel miles
Feb 20 – Mar 2