Los Angeles Kings
5-on-5 · model-estimatedKings: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Brandt Clarke.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (75% kill rate).
Team finishing is -16 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Darcy Kuemper sv% 89.1% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Brandt Clarke
- Quinton Byfield
- Kevin Fiala
- Drew Doughty
- Alex Turcotte
- Jeff Malott
- Jared Wright
- Artemi Panarin
- Adrian Kempe
- Alex Laferriere
- Trevor Moore
- Anze Kopitar
- Andrei Kuzmenko
- Scott Laughton
- Mikey Anderson
- Joel Edmundson
- Taylor Ward
- Brian Dumoulin
- Cody Ceci
- Joel Armia
- Mathieu Joseph
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper | 50 | 89.140 | — | +0.0 |
| Anton Forsberg | 36 | 90.970 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi PanarinL | 78 | 16.6 | +57.60 | +3.3 |
| Adrian KempeR | 81 | 14.8 | +54.30 | +2.8 |
| Quinton ByfieldR | 79 | 15.1 | +62.00 | +2.3 |
| Brandt ClarkeD | 82 | 16.9 | +75.40 | +2.1 |
| Kevin FialaL | 56 | 15.0 | +68.90 | +1.9 |
| Alex LaferriereR | 82 | 14.4 | +59.70 | +1.9 |
| Trevor MooreL | 69 | 13.8 | +57.70 | +1.4 |
| Drew DoughtyD | 72 | 19.2 | +71.90 | +1.4 |
| Anze KopitarC | 67 | 14.6 | +41.40 | +1.1 |
| Andrei KuzmenkoL | 52 | 11.7 | +51.40 | +1.0 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 17th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
18 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 43 even.
6 games in 10 days with 4,477 travel miles
Jan 15 – Jan 24
6 games in 10 days with 3,918 travel miles
Feb 24 – Mar 5
6 games in 10 days with 3,666 travel miles
Feb 8 – Feb 17