STRENGTHMINfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 29 rush shots worth 2.70 xG.
77
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Minnesota Wild
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): CHI 2 - 3 MIN (OT) — an overtime win over the Blackhawks.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 2 goals on 29 rush shots worth 2.70 xG.
Wild: a possession-driving team (67.9% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
Season complete · final ledger
83
Games filed
47
Wins (all)
36
Losses (all)
275
Goals for
242
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · CHI @ MIN · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCHIMIN
Offense
▸Basis
CHI Created 1.84 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.44 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.75 xG).
MIN Created 3.89 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (0.82 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.70 xG).
D+
68
A
94
Defense
▸Basis
CHI Allowed 3.89 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (0.82 xG) and 29 rush shots (2.70 xG).
MIN Allowed 1.84 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.44 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.75 xG).
F
56
B-
82
Transition
▸Basis
CHI Rush shots 18–29, rush xG 1.75–2.70 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
MIN Rush shots 29–18, rush xG 2.70–1.75 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D-
60
A-
90
Special teams
▸Basis
CHI 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.34 PP xG.
MIN 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.55 PP xG.
F
51
F
52
Goaltending
▸Basis
CHI +0.89 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.
MIN -0.16 goals saved above expected on 16 shots against.
B
84
C
73
Discipline
▸Basis
CHI Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
MIN Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
CHI Finishing +0.16 goals vs xG plus +0.89 GSAx of save luck = +1.05 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
MIN Finishing -0.89 goals vs xG plus -0.16 GSAx of save luck = -1.05 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B
83
D+
67
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGMINfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 18 rush shots worth 1.75 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
70
IMP
STRENGTHMINfangm
Won on the merits
The Wild controlled 68% of expected goals (3.89–1.84) and won 3-2 in overtime — result matched process.
66
IMP
WARNINGMINfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-5 with the man advantage on 0.55 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
53
IMP
TACTICALMINfan
The moment it turned
Tyler Pitlick's deflection from a sharp angle in overtime swung the game.
52
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGMINfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 18 rush shots worth 1.75 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
70
IMP
WARNINGMINfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-5 with the man advantage on 0.55 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
53
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHMINfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 29 rush shots worth 2.70 xG.
77
IMP
STRENGTHMINfangm
Won on the merits
The Wild controlled 68% of expected goals (3.89–1.84) and won 3-2 in overtime — result matched process.
66
IMP
STRENGTHMINfan
D. Hunt led the way
2A in 23:51 — the game's first star.
50
IMP
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
39/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 20th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
46,990
road miles flown
10
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
11
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
14
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
2,627 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d10
1d52
2d16
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
19 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 44 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 4,480 travel miles
Nov 21 – Dec 1
6 games in 10 days with 3,526 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,491 travel miles
Oct 6 – Oct 15
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach