Montreal Canadiens
5-on-5 · model-estimatedCanadiens: a possession-driving team (57.4% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Drives 5v5 play (57.4% xG share).
- Elite top-end talent: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson.
- Leaky penalty kill (78% kill rate).
PDO 1.019 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Cole Caufield
- Lane Hutson
- Nick Suzuki
- Sammy Blais
- Juraj Slafkovsk
- Ivan Demidov
- Oliver Kapanen
- Noah Dobson
- Zachary Bolduc
- Alexandre Carrier
- Alexandre Texier
- Brendan Gallagher
- Josh Anderson
- Kirby Dach
- Jayden Struble
- Alex Newhook
- Jake Evans
- Mike Matheson
- Kaiden Guhle
- Phillip Danault
- Joe Veleno
- Arber Xhekaj
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | 43 | 90.140 | 50.000 | -0.7 |
| Samuel Montembeault | 25 | 87.240 | 100.000 | +1.3 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole CaufieldR | 81 | 13.9 | +83.60 | +4.8 |
| Nick SuzukiC | 82 | 15.2 | +65.50 | +4.2 |
| Lane HutsonD | 82 | 18.9 | +85.80 | +4.1 |
| Juraj SlafkovskL | 82 | 14.1 | +49.40 | +2.4 |
| Ivan DemidovR | 82 | 11.7 | +46.50 | +2.0 |
| Oliver KapanenC | 82 | 11.5 | +46.60 | +1.2 |
| Noah DobsonD | 80 | 17.8 | +45.50 | +1.2 |
| Zachary BolducR | 78 | 11.8 | +49.70 | +1.1 |
| Alexandre CarrierD | 73 | 15.4 | +57.40 | +0.9 |
| Alexandre TexierL | 51 | 12.2 | +55.30 | +0.9 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 32nd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
25 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 36 even.
6 games in 9 days with 2,686 travel miles
Jan 13 – Jan 21
6 games in 13 days with 5,672 travel miles
Feb 20 – Mar 4
6 games in 10 days with 2,874 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 4