Nashville Predators
5-on-5 · model-estimatedPredators: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Steven Stamkos.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
Juuse Saros sv% 89.4% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Steven Stamkos
- Ryan O'Reilly
- Filip Forsberg
- Luke Evangelista
- Justin Barron
- Zachary L'Heureux
- Roman Josi
- Matthew Wood
- Erik Haula
- Brady Skjei
- Nicolas Hague
- Adam Wilsby
- Jonathan Marchessault
- Tyson Jost
- Fedor Svechkov
- Reid Schaefer
- Ozzy Wiesblatt
- Nick Perbix
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros | 59 | 89.350 | — | +0.0 |
| Justus Annunen | 28 | 90.720 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven StamkosC | 82 | 13.6 | +77.20 | +3.6 |
| Ryan O'ReillyC | 81 | 14.6 | +72.00 | +3.5 |
| Filip ForsbergL | 82 | 14.8 | +64.80 | +3.3 |
| Luke EvangelistaR | 81 | 13.9 | +65.00 | +2.4 |
| Roman JosiD | 68 | 19.2 | +57.30 | +2.0 |
| Matthew WoodR | 71 | 10.5 | +48.20 | +1.1 |
| Erik HaulaL | 81 | 12.5 | +40.20 | +1.0 |
| Brady SkjeiD | 82 | 17.8 | +49.40 | +0.5 |
| Nicolas HagueD | 62 | 17.0 | +52.50 | +0.4 |
| Jonathan MarchessaultR | 62 | 13.3 | +29.90 | +0.4 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 15th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
24 games with more rest than the opponent · 17 with fewer · 42 even.
6 games in 12 days with 5,443 travel miles
Mar 9 – Mar 20
6 games in 11 days with 4,203 travel miles
Dec 5 – Dec 15
6 games in 11 days with 4,071 travel miles
Jan 18 – Jan 28