Ottawa Senators
5-on-5 · model-estimatedSenators: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Dylan Cozens, Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (76% kill rate).
Linus Ullmark sv% 89.1% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Dylan Cozens
- Jake Sanderson
- Brady Tkachuk
- Shane Pinto
- Jordan Spence
- Tim Sttzle
- Drake Batherson
- Claude Giroux
- Fabian Zetterlund
- Artem Zub
- Thomas Chabot
- Michael Amadio
- Ridly Greig
- Nick Cousins
- Tyler Kleven
- Warren Foegele
- Nick Jensen
- Nikolas Matinpalo
- Lars Eller
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | 49 | 89.070 | — | +0.0 |
| Leevi Meriläinen | 20 | 86.000 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim SttzleC | 80 | 13.9 | +65.90 | +3.6 |
| Drake BathersonR | 79 | 13.3 | +71.70 | +3.5 |
| Dylan CozensC | 82 | 13.0 | +80.50 | +3.3 |
| Jake SandersonD | 67 | 17.4 | +87.90 | +3.2 |
| Brady TkachukL | 60 | 12.7 | +84.70 | +3.0 |
| Shane PintoC | 72 | 13.6 | +75.30 | +2.5 |
| Jordan SpenceD | 73 | 16.7 | +92.30 | +2.4 |
| Claude GirouxR | 82 | 12.0 | +60.00 | +2.1 |
| Fabian ZetterlundL | 82 | 11.5 | +60.80 | +1.5 |
| Michael AmadioR | 81 | 14.3 | +55.00 | +1.5 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 3rd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
16 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 45 even.
6 games in 12 days with 5,174 travel miles
Oct 24 – Nov 4
6 games in 10 days with 3,385 travel miles
Feb 9 – Feb 18
6 games in 13 days with 4,964 travel miles
Jan 2 – Jan 14