Philadelphia Flyers
5-on-5 · model-estimatedFlyers: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Owen Tippett.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (78% kill rate).
- Owen Tippett
- Trevor Zegras
- Matvei Michkov
- Travis Sanheim
- Noah Cates
- Tyson Foerster
- Emil Andrae
- Travis Konecny
- Christian Dvorak
- Sean Couturier
- Jamie Drysdale
- Denver Barkey
- Cam York
- Carl Grundstrom
- Rasmus Ristolainen
- Nick Seeler
- Noah Juulsen
- Nikita Grebenkin
- Rodrigo Abols
- David Jiricek
- Garnet Hathaway
- Luke Glendening
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | 52 | 90.570 | — | +0.0 |
| Samuel Ersson | 33 | 86.960 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor ZegrasC | 81 | 15.0 | +65.50 | +3.1 |
| Owen TippettR | 81 | 13.4 | +81.50 | +2.9 |
| Travis KonecnyR | 77 | 14.5 | +47.40 | +2.3 |
| Matvei MichkovR | 81 | 12.2 | +64.70 | +2.3 |
| Travis SanheimD | 81 | 19.1 | +73.00 | +2.0 |
| Noah CatesL | 82 | 12.1 | +61.70 | +2.0 |
| Christian DvorakC | 80 | 14.1 | +48.60 | +1.6 |
| Sean CouturierC | 78 | 13.0 | +54.60 | +1.5 |
| Jamie DrysdaleD | 78 | 18.4 | +59.80 | +1.3 |
| Tyson FoersterR | 29 | 13.5 | +61.00 | +0.9 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 25th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
22 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 41 even.
6 games in 11 days with 5,066 travel miles
Nov 5 – Nov 15
6 games in 10 days with 3,774 travel miles
Jan 3 – Jan 12
6 games in 12 days with 4,473 travel miles
Mar 5 – Mar 16