Pittsburgh Penguins
5-on-5 · model-estimatedPenguins: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Ilya Solovyov.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
Team finishing is +18 goals above xG — shooting luck likely to cool.
Stuart Skinner sv% 88.8% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Ilya Solovyov
- Anthony Mantha
- Bryan Rust
- Erik Karlsson
- Evgeni Malkin
- Rickard Rakell
- Tommy Novak
- Egor Chinakhov
- Justin Brazeau
- Ryan Shea
- Noel Acciari
- Samuel Girard
- Connor Clifton
- Kevin Hayes
- Rutger McGroarty
- Ryan Graves
- Sidney Crosby
- Ben Kindel
- Connor Dewar
- Blake Lizotte
- Parker Wotherspoon
- Elmer Soderblom
- Ville Koivunen
- Jack St. Ivany
- Kris Letang
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner | 50 | 88.790 | — | +0.0 |
| Arturs Silovs | 39 | 88.820 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony ManthaR | 81 | 12.4 | +66.40 | +3.0 |
| Sidney CrosbyC | 68 | 15.2 | +58.10 | +2.9 |
| Bryan RustR | 72 | 14.3 | +63.00 | +2.6 |
| Erik KarlssonD | 75 | 17.4 | +60.90 | +2.6 |
| Evgeni MalkinC | 56 | 13.7 | +66.40 | +2.5 |
| Rickard RakellR | 60 | 14.2 | +63.20 | +2.0 |
| Tommy NovakC | 82 | 12.8 | +61.80 | +1.9 |
| Egor ChinakhovR | 72 | 11.9 | +61.90 | +1.9 |
| Justin BrazeauR | 64 | 11.5 | +71.00 | +1.7 |
| Ryan SheaD | 80 | 16.0 | +62.10 | +1.5 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 9th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
26 games with more rest than the opponent · 29 with fewer · 28 even.
6 games in 12 days with 4,737 travel miles
Nov 3 – Nov 14
6 games in 10 days with 3,080 travel miles
Feb 28 – Mar 9
6 games in 10 days with 2,514 travel miles
Nov 19 – Nov 28