STRENGTHSEAfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
3 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.04 xG.
75
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Seattle Kraken
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): VAN 2 - 4 SEA — a win over the Canucks.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 3 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.04 xG.
Kraken: a balanced team (49.6% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
Season complete · final ledger
83
Games filed
35
Wins (all)
48
Losses (all)
230
Goals for
265
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · VAN @ SEA · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionVANSEA
Offense
▸Basis
VAN Created 2.67 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.40 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.69 xG).
SEA Created 2.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.21 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.04 xG).
C
76
C
76
Defense
▸Basis
VAN Allowed 2.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.21 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.04 xG).
SEA Allowed 2.67 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.40 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.69 xG).
C
74
C
74
Transition
▸Basis
VAN Rush shots 19–26, rush xG 1.69–2.04 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
SEA Rush shots 26–19, rush xG 2.04–1.69 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
68
B-
82
Special teams
▸Basis
VAN 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.97 PP xG.
SEA 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.46 PP xG.
F
58
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
VAN -1.37 goals saved above expected on 29 shots against.
SEA +0.67 goals saved above expected on 20 shots against.
D-
61
B-
82
Discipline
▸Basis
VAN Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
SEA Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
C
75
C
75
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
VAN Finishing -0.67 goals vs xG plus -1.37 GSAx of save luck = -2.04 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
SEA Finishing +1.37 goals vs xG plus +0.67 GSAx of save luck = +2.04 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
F
59
A-
91
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGSEAfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 19 rush shots worth 1.69 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
69
IMP
STRENGTHSEAfancoach
J. Daccord tilted the crease
J. Daccord stopped 14 of 14 (1.000), +1.87 goals above expected.
61
IMP
STRENGTHSEAfancoach
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 0.46 PP xG.
58
IMP
LUCKSEAfangm
Ran hot in front of the net
Scored 4 on 2.63 xG — +1.37 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.
55
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGSEAfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 19 rush shots worth 1.69 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
69
IMP
WARNINGSEAfancoach
Rebound control was shaky
Allowed 8 rebound chances worth 0.87 xG (0 converted).
Box out earlier and get the goalie help clearing second chances.
54
IMP
WARNINGSEAfancoach
N. Kokko gave one back
N. Kokko finished 4/6 (0.667), -1.20 goals vs expected.
50
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHSEAfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
3 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.04 xG.
75
IMP
STRENGTHSEAfancoach
J. Daccord tilted the crease
J. Daccord stopped 14 of 14 (1.000), +1.87 goals above expected.
61
IMP
STRENGTHSEAfancoach
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 0.46 PP xG.
58
IMP
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
ELITE
Load index
100/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 1st-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
50,229
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
20
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
22
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,484 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d51
2d12
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
16 games with more rest than the opponent · 21 with fewer · 46 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 3,485 travel miles
Jan 18 – Jan 26
6 games in 11 days with 4,807 travel miles
Dec 12 – Dec 22
6 games in 11 days with 4,661 travel miles
Feb 19 – Mar 1
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Box out earlier and get the goalie help clearing second chances.
Rebound control was shakycoach