San Jose Sharks
5-on-5 · model-estimatedSharks: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- No standout edges flagged.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (76% kill rate).
Team finishing is +13 goals above xG — shooting luck likely to cool.
Yaroslav Askarov sv% 88.4% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- None
- Macklin Celebrini
- Will Smith
- Collin Graf
- Dmitry Orlov
- Adam Gaudette
- Igor Chernyshov
- Michael Misa
- Pavol Regenda
- William Eklund
- Tyler Toffoli
- Alexander Wennberg
- Kiefer Sherwood
- John Klingberg
- Jeff Skinner
- Vincent Desharnais
- Mario Ferraro
- Sam Dickinson
- Philipp Kurashev
- Shakir Mukhamadullin
- Zack Ostapchuk
- Barclay Goodrow
- Ty Dellandrea
- Nick Leddy
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov | 47 | 88.370 | — | +0.0 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | 40 | 89.610 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin CelebriniC | 82 | 16.4 | +68.20 | +5.0 |
| Will SmithC | 69 | 14.2 | +63.40 | +2.5 |
| Collin GrafR | 81 | 13.0 | +69.00 | +2.2 |
| William EklundL | 78 | 14.5 | +54.60 | +1.9 |
| Tyler ToffoliC | 79 | 11.6 | +57.70 | +1.8 |
| Alexander WennbergC | 80 | 14.1 | +42.50 | +1.6 |
| Kiefer SherwoodL | 72 | 13.5 | +56.40 | +1.5 |
| Dmitry OrlovD | 82 | 17.4 | +63.20 | +1.5 |
| Adam GaudetteR | 66 | 10.4 | +63.10 | +1.2 |
| John KlingbergD | 56 | 16.8 | +58.50 | +1.1 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 4th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
18 games with more rest than the opponent · 23 with fewer · 42 even.
6 games in 10 days with 4,147 travel miles
Oct 31 – Nov 9
6 games in 9 days with 3,197 travel miles
Dec 3 – Dec 11
6 games in 13 days with 5,651 travel miles
Oct 3 – Oct 15