WARNINGTBLfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.36 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
84
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Tampa Bay Lightning
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Wed, Apr 152025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Wed, Apr 15): NYR 4 - 2 TBL — a loss to the Rangers.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.36 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Lightning: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
Season complete · final ledger
82
Games filed
50
Wins (all)
32
Losses (all)
290
Goals for
231
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · NYR @ TBL · Wed, Apr 15
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionNYRTBL
Offense
▸Basis
NYR Created 4.08 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (2.59 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.36 xG).
TBL Created 4.77 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 9 high-danger shots (2.34 xG) and 29 rush shots (3.05 xG).
A+
100
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis
NYR Allowed 4.77 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 9 high-danger shots (2.34 xG) and 29 rush shots (3.05 xG).
TBL Allowed 4.08 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (2.59 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.36 xG).
F
40
F
49
Transition
▸Basis
NYR Rush shots 21–29, rush xG 2.36–3.05 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
TBL Rush shots 29–21, rush xG 3.05–2.36 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D
64
B
86
Special teams
▸Basis
NYR 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.06 PP xG.
TBL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.31 PP xG.
A
95
F
52
Goaltending
▸Basis
NYR +2.77 goals saved above expected on 31 shots against.
TBL +0.08 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
A+
100
C
76
Discipline
▸Basis
NYR Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
TBL Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
C
75
C
75
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
NYR Finishing -0.08 goals vs xG plus +2.77 GSAx of save luck = +2.69 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
TBL Finishing -2.77 goals vs xG plus +0.08 GSAx of save luck = -2.69 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A+
97
F
53
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
LUCKTBLfangm
Cold finishing night
Scored 2 on 4.77 xG — -2.77 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
80
IMP
STRENGTHTBLfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 29 rush shots worth 3.05 xG.
76
IMP
LUCKTBLfangm
PDO ran cold
Single-game PDO of 0.947 — the bounces went against them tonight.
51
IMP
WARNINGTBLfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-3 with the man advantage on 0.31 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
45
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGTBLfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.36 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
84
IMP
WARNINGTBLfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-3 with the man advantage on 0.31 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
45
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHTBLfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 29 rush shots worth 3.05 xG.
76
IMP
Regression watch
- PDO 1.019 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
STRONG
Load index
87/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 5th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
47,068
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
4,348 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d43
2d22
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
25 games with more rest than the opponent · 12 with fewer · 46 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,933 travel miles
Feb 27 – Mar 8
6 games in 9 days with 3,600 travel miles
Dec 12 – Dec 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,821 travel miles
Nov 5 – Nov 14
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach