WARNINGVANfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.04 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
80
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Vancouver Canucks
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): VAN 2 - 4 SEA — a loss to the Kraken.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.04 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Canucks: a balanced team (50.4% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (3 signals).
Season complete · final ledger
83
Games filed
25
Wins (all)
58
Losses (all)
218
Goals for
320
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · VAN @ SEA · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionVANSEA
Offense
▸Basis
VAN Created 2.67 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.40 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.69 xG).
SEA Created 2.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.21 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.04 xG).
C
76
C
76
Defense
▸Basis
VAN Allowed 2.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.21 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.04 xG).
SEA Allowed 2.67 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.40 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.69 xG).
C
74
C
74
Transition
▸Basis
VAN Rush shots 19–26, rush xG 1.69–2.04 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
SEA Rush shots 26–19, rush xG 2.04–1.69 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
68
B-
82
Special teams
▸Basis
VAN 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.97 PP xG.
SEA 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.46 PP xG.
F
58
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
VAN -1.37 goals saved above expected on 29 shots against.
SEA +0.67 goals saved above expected on 20 shots against.
D-
61
B-
82
Discipline
▸Basis
VAN Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
SEA Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
C
75
C
75
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
VAN Finishing -0.67 goals vs xG plus -1.37 GSAx of save luck = -2.04 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
SEA Finishing +1.37 goals vs xG plus +0.67 GSAx of save luck = +2.04 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
F
59
A-
91
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHVANfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 19 rush shots worth 1.69 xG.
65
IMP
WARNINGVANfancoach
N. Tolopilo gave one back
N. Tolopilo finished 25/29 (0.862), -1.37 goals vs expected.
53
IMP
TACTICALVANfancoach
Crashed the crease
8 rebound chances (0 converted, 0.87 xG) — net-front presence created second looks.
Keep sending traffic — the rebound game traveled.
52
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGVANfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.04 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
80
IMP
WARNINGVANfancoach
N. Tolopilo gave one back
N. Tolopilo finished 25/29 (0.862), -1.37 goals vs expected.
53
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHVANfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 19 rush shots worth 1.69 xG.
65
IMP
Regression watch
- PDO 0.974 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
- Team finishing is -18 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
- Kevin Lankinen sv% 87.5% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
16/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 27th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
46,041
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
12
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
10
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
7
Longest road trip
5,080 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d48
2d18
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
24 games with more rest than the opponent · 24 with fewer · 35 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,090 travel miles
Feb 18 – Feb 27
6 games in 11 days with 4,332 travel miles
Jan 22 – Feb 1
6 games in 13 days with 5,429 travel miles
Nov 22 – Dec 4
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Keep sending traffic — the rebound game traveled.
Crashed the creasecoach