Winnipeg Jets
5-on-5 · model-estimatedJets: a outshot/run-and-gun team (47.3% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Josh Morrissey.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (47.3% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (78% kill rate).
Team finishing is -22 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Josh Morrissey
- Kyle Connor
- Gabriel Vilardi
- Dylan DeMelo
- Nino Niederreiter
- Elias Salomonsson
- Mark Scheifele
- Cole Perfetti
- Morgan Barron
- Cole Koepke
- Dylan Samberg
- Jacob Bryson
- Alex Iafallo
- Jonathan Toews
- Adam Lowry
- Vladislav Namestnikov
- Isak Rosen
- Brad Lambert
- Gustav Nyquist
- Neal Pionk
- Haydn Fleury
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck | 57 | 89.530 | — | +0.0 |
| Eric Comrie | 25 | 88.990 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle ConnorL | 82 | 16.2 | +67.10 | +4.0 |
| Mark ScheifeleC | 82 | 16.8 | +57.20 | +4.0 |
| Gabriel VilardiC | 82 | 14.7 | +62.00 | +2.9 |
| Josh MorrisseyD | 77 | 19.8 | +76.80 | +2.9 |
| Cole PerfettiC | 68 | 12.6 | +52.10 | +1.1 |
| Morgan BarronC | 65 | 10.5 | +55.60 | +0.9 |
| Dylan DeMeloD | 82 | 18.3 | +61.00 | +0.9 |
| Nino NiederreiterR | 61 | 12.0 | +60.90 | +0.8 |
| Alex IafalloL | 79 | 12.8 | +35.40 | +0.5 |
| Jonathan ToewsC | 82 | 11.8 | +33.30 | +0.5 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 16th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
14 games with more rest than the opponent · 21 with fewer · 48 even.
6 games in 10 days with 4,410 travel miles
Oct 27 – Nov 5
6 games in 10 days with 3,774 travel miles
Nov 23 – Dec 2
6 games in 11 days with 4,276 travel miles
Feb 19 – Mar 1