Anaheim generated far weaker shot quality: 0.037 xG/shot to Seattle's 0.071, which explains how the Ducks' 36 shot attempts yielded only 3.18 expected goals while the Kraken's 31 generated 3.78. But the quality gap understates the reality. ANA underperformed their xG by 2.18 goals, scoring just 1 on 3.18 expected.

The underlying game was close. SEA held 46% of shot attempts (31–36 on goal). High-danger chances went 5–3 to the Kraken. It played like a coin flip until the goaltending tilted the table.

J. Daccord (SEA) was the difference. His 35 saves on 36 shots (0.972 SV%) represented 2.18 goals above expected—a performance that transformed a close game into a rout. L. Dostal, despite outperforming expectation by 0.78 goals (28/31), couldn't overcome ANA's cold offensive night.

SEA struck at the right moments. Jared McCann's wrist shot from the slot (P3, 04:25) was the turning point. The Kraken converted 3 of 27 rush chances and generated 4 rebound opportunities without cashing any, but their timing was superior to ANA's equivalent wastefulness.

Final: ANA 1 – SEA 3

The model projects ANA 2.6 - 2.5 SEA with Seattle at 47% win probability. This is a pick'em.

Anaheim dominates underlying play. The Ducks generate 52.0% expected goals at 5v5 compared to Seattle's 46.0%, and control 52.0% of shot attempts versus Seattle's 45.0%. This territorial advantage compounds over a season but is noisy on a given night. Seattle's PDO is 1.011—the Kraken are overperforming—while Anaheim sits at 0.981 and due for positive regression.

Rest favors Seattle: seven days off versus Anaheim's five.

Beckett Sennecke anchors Anaheim's offense at 1.03 xG/60, 20G, 19A, with 8 high-danger goals and 13.5% shooting. Cutter Gauthier (25G, 16A, 0.99 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals, 12.9% shooting) is just as efficient. Jacob Melanson leads Seattle at 0.88 xG/60 with only 2G and 3A across 2 high-danger goals at a 6.1% shooting rate—regression built in. Ben Meyers (7G, 8A, 0.82 xG/60, 1 high-danger goal, 12.1% shooting) generates less volume but at sustainable efficiency.

Mason McTavish is Anaheim's defensive weak spot; Chandler Stephenson fills that role for Seattle. Neither team has generated notable secondary or rebound scoring off high-danger chances this season.

Three Things to Watch:

• Whether Anaheim's 52.0% Corsi translates to goals—the Ducks excel over time but one game is a high-variance sample.
• Seattle's rest cushion and hot PDO: can the Kraken maintain 1.011, or does Anaheim's 0.981 regression close the gap?
• Sennecke's 1.03 xG/60 and 13.5% shooting are elite-tier; unsustainable long-term but dangerous tonight.