Bruins run the Sabres off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
A. Lyon stole this game. Boston dominated the metrics—68% of 5v5 expected goals (4.92–2.30), 58-42 shot attempts (31-22 on goal)—yet won by only two goals. The goaltending gap explains it: Lyon saved 2.92 above expected while J. Swayman saved 1.30.
Boston generated far higher-quality chances: 0.075 xG per shot versus Buffalo's 0.040. The high-danger count was 7-3 in Boston's favor. Yet Lyon's 0.933 save percentage kept the Sabres competitive.
Sean Kuraly's tip-in at 19:57 of the third broke the stalemate. M. Kastelic added a goal and assist in 12:42. C. McAvoy contributed an assist (24:27). A. Peeke added an assist at 20:11.
The variance tells the story. Boston underperformed their xG by 1.92 goals. Buffalo underperformed by 1.30. Lyon's 2.92 save margin above expected was the sole reason the final didn't read 4-1 or worse. One goaltender kept a mismatched game within reach.
The danger ladder
BOS went 1-for-7 from high danger on 2.95 expected goals — 2.0 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
BUF finished -1.3 against expected, BOS -1.9 — A. Lyon (BUF) saved 2.9 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Snap shots carried the volume: BUF went 1-for-17, BOS 1-for-16.
- BUF generated higher-quality looks than the shot total suggests.
- A. Lyon (BUF) stopped 2.9 goals above expected.
- BOS generated far more dangerous chances — 0.075 xG/shot vs 0.040. Quality over quantity.
- BOS created 4 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- BUF created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- BOS underperformed xG by 1.9 — wasted quality chances.
- A. Lyon (BUF) saved 2.9 goals above expected — stole the show.