Stars steal one from the Avalanche against the run of play
The Stars stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.52–4.74 and won anyway.
The underlying story
Colorado dominated in underlying metrics: 65% of expected goals at 5v5, 64% of shot attempts (39–22), and 8–4 in high-danger chances. Dallas won 5-4 in a shootout anyway. This was a heist.
J. Oettinger made 35 saves on 39 shots (0.897 SV%, +0.74 vs expected). S. Wedgewood made 18 saves on 22 shots (0.818 SV%, -1.48 vs expected). Oettinger bailed out Dallas; Wedgewood couldn't keep up.
On the rush, both teams scored 3 goals—Dallas on 21 chances, Colorado on 35. Dallas also converted 2 of 4 high-danger chances (50%). The Stars' efficiency in high-leverage situations overcame Colorado's volume. Mikko Rantanen's wrist shot from the high slot in the shootout ended it, but Dallas's precision had already won the night.
The danger ladder
COL went 3-for-8 from high danger on 1.87 expected goals — 1.1 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
DAL finished +2.5 against expected, COL -0.7 — S. Wedgewood (COL) allowed 1.5 more goals than expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: DAL went 2-for-17, COL 1-for-31. DAL scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
- DAL stole this one. COL owned 65% of the xG and lost.
- S. Wedgewood (COL) gave up 1.5 goals more than expected — well below their workload.
- DAL was clinical in the high-danger zone — 2/4 on HD chances (50%).
- COL was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 35 rush chances.
- DAL was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 21 rush chances.
- COL created 3 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- DAL created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.