STL won 3-1. DAL underperformed their expected goals by 1.06 — the variance that mattered.

The Blues controlled the underlying metrics. They held 59% of 5v5 expected goals (2.92–2.06) and led 22–19 in shot attempts. The structure favored STL.

But DAL stayed competitive in the dangerous areas. Both teams produced 5 high-danger chances. STL converted at 40% (2-for-5); DAL couldn't finish.

J. Binnington made the difference. The STL goaltender posted a 0.947 save percentage on 18-for-19, outperforming his expected total by 1.06 goals. J. Oettinger kept DAL afloat with a 0.92 overperformance (19-for-21), but the gap widened.

The turning point: Pius Suter's backhander from the wing in the third period at 18:59.

Three Stars

• #96 M. Rantanen (STL) — 1G in 24:09
• #53 W. Johnston (DAL) — 1A in 20:23
• #25 J. Kyrou (STL) — 1G in 17:42

The model sees this as a pick'em: 2.4 goals projected for each team, St. Louis at 51% win probability. Dallas is the hotter team by recent points pace—8-2-0 in their last 10—but that streak carries regression risk.

Dallas holds a marginal territorial edge at 5v5: 51.0% xG to St. Louis's 49.0%, though the Blues edge the Corsi at 48.0% to 47.0%. The underlying play is tighter than Dallas's recent record suggests. The Stars' PDO sits at 1.024, well above the neutral 1.000 baseline; St. Louis's is exactly at 1.000. That gap—Dallas running hot while St. Louis runs neutral—explains the recent divergence. Expect Dallas to cool.

Jason Robertson is Dallas's engine: 0.96 xG per 60, 25 goals, 21 assists, 12.4% shooting, 2 high-danger goals. Arttu Hyry (0.84 xG per 60, 2 goals, 2 assists, 9.1% shooting) is day-to-day with a lower body injury.

St. Louis counters with Jimmy Snuggerud (0.86 xG per 60, 15 goals, 22 assists, 2 high-danger goals, 11.9% shooting) and Dylan Holloway (0.82 xG per 60, 13 goals, 24 assists, 10.8% shooting). Both wings offer volume and efficiency.

C. DeSmith's back-to-back status is the wildcard. Watch for either a backup start or a tired starter; that variable tilts an otherwise even matchup.

Three Stars to Watch

• C. DeSmith is on a back-to-back—watch for a backup or tired starter.
• Dallas's recent pace (8-2-0 in the last 10) is reversible if PDO compression hits.
• Robertson and Snuggerud set the quality bar; whichever winger gets space likely wins the game.

Data: MoneyPuck 5v5 models, NHL API