Anaheim's dominance extended beyond the 5-2 scoreline. The Ducks controlled 65% of 5v5 expected goals (4.80–2.55) and massively outshot Nashville on high-danger chances, 8–1. Nashville held 47% of shot attempts, but the chances weren't there to threaten.

The gap widened in quality per attempt. Anaheim generated 0.074 expected goals per shot; Nashville managed 0.046. Lower-percentage chances against a hot goalie are a losing bet.

L. Dostal (ANA) stopped 26 of 28, posting a 0.929 save percentage that beat expectation by 0.55. J. Saros (NSH) faced harder looks: 27 of 32 stopped, 0.844 save percentage. Dostal's edge mattered.

Nashville's one consistent threat came off the rush — two goals on 21 chances. Anaheim answered with three goals on 30 rush attempts. Both teams executed in transition, but Anaheim had more of it.

The rebound battle sealed it. Nashville crashed the net for six rebound opportunities and converted zero. Anaheim had seven and converted two. When possession favors you this heavily at 5v5, second chances become inevitable.

The model projects a 2.7-2.7 game with the Ducks at 50% win probability—as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Anaheim owns the underlying play. The Ducks post 52.0% 5v5 xG and 52.0% Corsi to Nashville's 49.0% and 50.0%, controlling both shot quality and volume. On paper, this is an Anaheim game.

Regression narrows the edge. The Ducks' 0.981 PDO sits well below Nashville's 0.992—Anaheim is running cold and due for positive regression, which will shrink what appears to be a clean advantage.

Beckett Sennecke delivers Anaheim's offense at 1.03 xG per 60 with 20 goals, 19 assists, and eight high-danger finishes on a 13.5% shooting rate that appears sustainable. Cutter Gauthier runs 0.99 xG per 60 and has posted 25 goals and 16 assists on a 12.9% clip, though he's drawn only 2 high-danger goals—his efficiency looks genuine. Nashville counters with Filip Forsberg (23 goals, 17 assists, 0.80 xG/60, 13.6% shooting) and Zachary L'Heureux, who produces 0.85 xG per 60 but has registered only 4 goals on a 16.0% shooting rate that leaves room for regression.

Defensively, Mason McTavish is Anaheim's weak link; Jonathan Marchessault represents a similar vulnerability for Nashville. Both teams generated zero high-danger and zero rebound goals—no edge in the margins.

The model has it right. The Ducks own cleaner possession, but their luck deficit narrows the gap closer to parity.