Buffalo won 5–3 despite Toronto's 3.43–2.98 expected-goals advantage — the Sabres outscored the underlying play by 2.02 goals, while A. Stolarz (TOR) allowed 2.02 more goals than expected.

The game played nearly even on volume. The Sabres held 47% of shot attempts, generating 30 shots to Toronto's 34. High-danger chances split even at 4–4. Where Buffalo separated was conversion: five rush-attack goals on 28 chances, versus Toronto's two on 27. A. Tuch's backhander from the slot at 16:59 of the third marked the turning point.

In net, A. Lyon (BUF) stopped 31 of 34 for a 0.912 mark, against A. Stolarz's 25 saves on 30 shots (0.833 SV%). Stolarz's shortfall was decisive.

M. Samuelsson led all scorers with two goals in 23:38. O. Ekman-Larsson paced Toronto with two assists in 25:50. A. Tuch finished with a goal and an assist in 19:34.

The difference was Buffalo's rush finishing and goaltending advantage.

The model likes Buffalo here. The Sabres project to a 2.4-2.7 goal margin with 56% win probability, a slim but meaningful edge rooted in underlying play—though lurking PDO regression could flatten the advantage.

Buffalo owns the territorial battle. At 50.0% expected goals share and 49.0% Corsi percentage, the Sabres generate chances at a pace that Toronto, at 46.0% xG and 45.0% Corsi, cannot match. The Leafs are underwater by six goals over their last ten games, a sign of recent underperformance that predates any unlucky variance.

But here's the catch: Buffalo's 1.020 PDO is running hot. Toronto sits at 1.002—close to league average—while the Sabres exceed expectations on both ends. Regression is likely; the question is timing and whether the Leafs can seize the window before it arrives.

Auston Matthews anchors Toronto's attack at 1.10 expected goals per 60 minutes, carrying 17 goals and 13 assists on a 10.6% shooting rate. John Tavares operates from a tighter window—0.91 xG/60—but converts at 12.4%, his three high-danger goals proof that efficiency in the right areas matters. The Leafs concentrate their best work rather than spread it.

Buffalo counters with Jason Zucker (1.07 xG/60, 14 goals, 14 assists, six high-danger goals) and Josh Doan (1.01 xG/60, 15 goals, 18 assists, 11.5% shooting). The Sabres distribute offense more evenly; Doan's conversion rate and Zucker's net-front presence suggest depth over star dependency. Both teams sit at 0% on rebounds and loose-puck goals—a quirk suggesting disciplined recent defense. The Leafs identify Bo Groulx as a defensive weak link; Buffalo flags Jack Quinn as theirs, though neither appears critical to this matchup.

Buffalo's edge lives in puck possession, not goaltending variance or special teams. The Sabres generate more chances and give up fewer. That doesn't guarantee a win, but it justifies 56%—and the PDO warning justifies caution.