Backcheck
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Recap · COL at BOS

Bruins steal one from the Avalanche against the run of play

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.14–2.91 and won anyway.

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:02 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarity
Away
COL
Colorado Avalanche
2
Home
BOS
Boston Bruins
3
FINAL
Process vs result

The underlying story

4.14Expected goals2.91
59% share for the better side
33Shot attempts (SOG)19
7High-danger chances4
84Corsi (all attempts)41
Score-adjusted: 70% / 30%
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

The Bruins won 3-2, but Colorado's underlying metrics screamed otherwise: the Avalanche generated 59% of expected goals (4.14–2.91). This was decided not by dominance but by ruthlessness.

Boston was outshot decisively (19–33) and out-muscled in the high-danger area (4 chances to Colorado's 7). Yet J. Swayman's 0.939 save percentage—worth 2.1 extra goals against expectation—made them prevail.

The quality gap told the real story. Boston's shots averaged 0.071 expected goals; Colorado's, just 0.049. On the rush, both teams scored twice, but the Bruins did it on 20 chances to Colorado's 33. Precision over volume.

S. Wedgewood's 0.842 save percentage couldn't overcome that. M. Lohrei (3A) orchestrated Boston's attack; N. MacKinnon (2A) and A. Lehkonen (2G) couldn't deliver for Colorado. The Bruins stole one that every metric said they shouldn't.

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
COL1 / 7 · 1.57 xG
BOS2 / 4 · 1.19 xG
Medium dangermid-range
COL1 / 15 · 1.78 xG
BOS1 / 11 · 1.25 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
COL0 / 62 · 0.79 xG
BOS0 / 26 · 0.47 xG

BOS went 2-for-4 from high danger on 1.19 expected goals — 0.8 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
COL
2 G · 4.14 xG · -2.1
BOS
3 G · 2.91 xG · +0.1
012345
Goalies · GSAx (goals saved above expected)
S. WedgewoodCOL
-0.1
J. SwaymanBOS
+2.1

COL finished -2.1 against expected, BOS +0.1 — J. Swayman (BOS) saved 2.1 goals above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
COL
WRIST0/13
SNAP1/18
SLAP0/6
TIP IN1/6
BACKHAND0/4
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/1
OTHER0/35
BOS
WRIST3/23
SNAP0/1
SLAP0/5
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
BAT0/0
OTHER0/7
COL
BOS
Off the rush
2 G on 33 · 3.28 xG
2 G on 20 · 1.60 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3 · 0.43 xG
1 G on 5 · 0.64 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: COL went 0-for-13, BOS 3-for-23. COL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Lohrei
#6 · D · BOS
0 G · 3 A · 0 SOG · 18:58 TOI · +2
N. MacKinnon
#29 · C · COL
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 21:38 TOI · +2
A. Lehkonen
#62 · L · COL
2 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 20:54 TOI · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model flagged
  • BOS won despite being outplayed by xG (41%). Goaltending or finishing carried them.
  • J. Swayman (BOS) stopped 2.1 goals above expected.
  • BOS generated far more dangerous chances — 0.071 xG/shot vs 0.049. Quality over quantity.
  • BOS was clinical in the high-danger zone — 2/4 on HD chances (50%).
  • BOS was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 20 rush chances.
  • COL was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 33 rush chances.
  • BOS created 5 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
  • COL created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
  • COL underperformed xG by 2.1 — wasted quality chances.
  • J. Swayman (BOS) saved 2.1 goals above expected — stole the show.
Before the game — the model's pre-game read
Preview · COL at BOS · 3:00 PM ET

The Avalanche are the model's lean over the Bruins — with PDO regression in play

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:00 PMEdited for clarity
Win probability

The model's lean

56%
COL
Model favorite
56%
44%
COL50BOS

COL by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 2.9–2.5 BOS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season profile · edge from the spine

Tale of the tape

COL← edge
edge →BOS
57.0%5v5 xG%47.0%
57.0%Corsi%49.0%
3.03xGF / 602.39
2.30xGA / 602.67
2.63Goals for / gm2.22
1.56Goals against / gm1.82
1.021PDO — luck, not skill1.023

COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and PDO (1.021 vs 1.023) says BOS has run hotter.

Source · MoneyPuck season tables · 5v5

Colorado is favored by the model, which projects a 2.9-2.5 scoreline and gives the Avalanche a 56% win probability. That edge flows from a fundamental territorial advantage: Colorado generates 57.0% of 5v5 expected goals and controls 57.0% of Corsi, while Boston trails at 47.0% and 49.0% respectively. Colorado's also been sharper in form, going 5-2-3 in their last 10.

The risk to this lean: both teams are running hot. Colorado's PDO of 1.021 and Boston's 1.023 mean expect some regression for both—that shrinks the projected edge considerably.

T. Miner faces a back-to-back for Boston, adding uncertainty in goal.

The game lives in a few names. Artturi Lehkonen anchors Colorado's offense at 1.11 xG/60 with 18 goals and 22 assists, including six high-danger chances and a 14.9% shooting rate. Ross Colton's 4.9% shooting rate trails his 1.10 xG/60, a pairing to monitor. Viktor Arvidsson (1.04 xG/60, 18 goals, 24 assists) provides Boston's main threat, though his two high-danger goals are outpaced by Lehkonen's six. Tanner Jeannot (0.75 xG/60, 6 goals) operates at a more modest rate.

Defensively, Nazem Kadri is Colorado's liability, Elias Lindholm Boston's.

Players to Watch

  • Artturi Lehkonen (COL) — 1.11 xG/60, 18G 22A, 6 HD goals, 14.9% shooting
  • Viktor Arvidsson (BOS) — 1.04 xG/60, 18G 24A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting
  • Ross Colton (COL) — 1.10 xG/60, 7G 15A, 1 HD goal, 4.9% shooting
  • Tanner Jeannot (BOS) — 0.75 xG/60, 6G 14A, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting
Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

COL
Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A
1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh
Ross Colton7G 15A
1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh
BOS
Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
Source · MoneyPuck skaters
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