The Maple Leafs won 4–3 despite Calgary's eight high-danger chances to their three—a significant gap in scoring-opportunity quality that complicated a near-even expected-goals result (4.08–4.01). The Leafs' puck control and elite goaltending made the difference.

Toronto held 56% of shot attempts (37–29 on goal), dominance that limited Calgary's access to prime scoring areas. A. Stolarz finished with a 0.897 save percentage, stopping 1.01 goals above expected, and converted the statistical tie into victory.

Both teams scored 3 on the rush, but the Leafs' puck possession meant they generated 30 such attempts to Calgary's 23. That volume, consistently cycled through, eventually found the net.

M. Knies led with 2 goals and an assist in 21:02. M. Domi added 2 in 12:25. R. Andersson recorded 1 assist in 25:48.

The turning point came at 17:56 of the third period: M. Domi's wrist shot from the high slot broke a tie. It crystallized what the shot distribution had promised—that Toronto's possession would translate to a lead Calgary couldn't erase.

This is essentially a coin flip. The model projects a 2.5-2.6 goal game with Toronto at 51% win probability — the thinnest of edges.

The Maple Leafs look fresher. They've posted a 4-4-2 record in their last 10, outpacing Calgary's -14 goal differential over the same stretch.

The underlying numbers close the gap. Calgary's 49.0% Corsi rate indicates territorial superiority — they should spend significant time in Toronto's end. The Maple Leafs trail at 46.0%, but their expected goals sit nearly level: 46.0% to Calgary's 47.0%, which suggests the Flames' advantage doesn't translate to clear shot quality. Calgary's real vulnerability is their 0.985 PDO. That rate means they're converting below league average and catching fewer favorable bounces than normal — a recipe for positive regression.

Rest tilts toward Toronto. The Maple Leafs enter on three days' rest; Calgary on one. With D. Wolf on a back-to-back, watch for either a backup appearance or a starter who might fade.

Blake Coleman drives Calgary's offense: 0.89 expected goals per 60 minutes, 16 goals, 12 assists, 2 high-danger goals, 11.4% shooting. Matt Coronato pairs alongside him at 0.80 xG/60, 10 goals, 16 assists, and 6.6% conversion. Both are producing below their underlying volume, again suggesting regression is coming.

Toronto counters with Auston Matthews at 1.10 xG/60, 17 goals, 13 assists, and 1 high-danger goal. John Tavares follows at 0.91 xG/60, 15 goals, 24 assists, capitalizing on high-danger chances at 12.4% — an efficiency rate that tends to stick around.

Both teams sit at 0% conversion on high-danger situations and 0% on rebounds, suggesting neither has developed secondary scoring yet. The defensive distinction: Matt Coronato represents Calgary's back-check vulnerability, while Bo Groulx is Toronto's.

The model and underlying numbers align. This is close, a true coin flip, with no clear leverage unless you believe Calgary's PDO regression narrative paired with their Corsi dominance.