Jets steal one from the Wild against the run of play
The Jets stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.69–4.32 and won anyway.
The underlying story
Winnipeg won 4–3 in overtime despite finishing with 38% of expected goals. The Wild owned 62% of the xG battle (4.32–2.69) and controlled 62% of shot attempts at 5v5 — this was a heist driven entirely by goaltending.
C. Hellebuyck stopped 1.32 more goals than expected, while F. Gustavsson allowed 1.31 more than his workload deserved. The gap was stark enough to flip the game: subtract Hellebuyck's overperformance and add Gustavsson's underperformance, and Minnesota wins. The Wild also created more high-danger looks (6–3) and generated nine rebound opportunities to Winnipeg's three, but couldn't finish.
Winnipeg was efficient in transition, scoring twice on 25 rush attempts while Minnesota couldn't capitalize on net-front traffic. Kyle Connor's wrist shot from the high slot at 00:46 of overtime ended it.
The danger ladder
WPG went 3-for-11 from medium danger on 1.20 expected goals — 1.8 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
WPG finished +1.3 against expected, MIN -1.3 — C. Hellebuyck (WPG) saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: WPG went 2-for-20, MIN 2-for-37. WPG scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
- WPG stole this one. MIN owned 62% of the xG and lost.
- C. Hellebuyck (WPG) stopped 1.3 goals above expected.
- F. Gustavsson (MIN) gave up 1.3 goals more than expected — well below their workload.
- WPG was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 25 rush chances.
- MIN created 9 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- WPG created 3 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.