The Canadiens edged the Senators 4-3 in overtime and controlled 61% of expected goals (3.65–2.35)—a dominant margin the scoreboard barely reflected.

Shot attempts (27–17 Canadiens) confirmed the imbalance. The Canadiens generated far higher-quality chances: 0.072 expected goals per shot versus Ottawa's 0.043. The Senators stayed alive through L. Ullmark's 0.852 SV% while S. Montembeault saved 14 of 17 (−0.65 vs. expected).

Both teams excelled on the rush with similar efficiency—the Canadiens scored 4 goals on 26 attempts, Ottawa 3 on 20. The difference was the Canadiens' depth elsewhere. High-danger chances went 6–5 Canadiens, a reflection of sustained offensive pressure.

Alex Newhook's snap shot from the high slot at 1:40 of overtime ended it. The Three Stars were N. Suzuki (2A), C. Caufield (1G, 1A), and D. Batherson (1G, 1A). Suzuki's playmaking and Caufield's scoring embodied the Canadiens' offensive control.

The Senators' tight finish masked a lopsided contest. The Canadiens dictated pace and shot quality; Ottawa hung around through scrappy play and L. Ullmark's sharp work. The xG spread told the truth.

The model projects Ottawa at 55% win probability in a game it sees at 2.6–2.4 Senators. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Ottawa dominates the underlying possession game. The Senators generate 56.0% of expected goals at 5v5 to Montreal's 48.0%, and control shot attempts at 53.0% Corsi against Montreal's 49.0%. But Montreal's recent run—8-2-0 in their last ten games—obscures a PDO gap: Montreal sits at 1.018, running hot on luck, while Ottawa's 0.993 suggests the reverse. That variance alone explains why the model won't lean hard either direction.

Brady Tkachuk drives Ottawa's offense at 1.19 expected goals per 60 minutes, combining 11 goals and 20 assists with only a 7.5% shooting rate, suggesting upside if he tightens his finish. His 2 high-danger goals underscore elite positioning. Dylan Cozens (1.00 xG/60, 13 goals, 15 assists, 9.5% shooting) is the secondary threat, though he's underperforming relative to his volume.

Montreal counters with Cole Caufield, whose 0.97 xG per 60 contradicts his 33-goal, 16-assist total—he's shooting at an unsustainable 20.0% rate. Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19 goals, 12 assists) represents Montreal's more reliable secondary option at 17.8% shooting.

Both teams generate 0% high-danger and rebound goals, a tactical mirror that caps their ceilings despite Ottawa's superior shot volume. Nick Jensen is Ottawa's defensive vulnerability; Mike Matheson plays the same role for Montreal.

The model's reluctance to separate these teams makes sense. Ottawa outplays Montreal in every measurable way except recent results. Whether Montreal's 8-2-0 streak survives the statistical pressure, or Ottawa's dominance finally converts to wins, remains genuinely unsettled. The 55% Senators line respects both outcomes.