The Sharks won 6-1, but Seattle owned the game that mattered most: they controlled 68% of expected goals and dominated shot quality. Y. Askarov made it irrelevant.

The Kraken generated 4.62 expected goals against Sharks 2.19, built on 57% of shot attempts and 12 high-danger chances to San Jose's 2. Seattle crashed relentlessly, combining higher-quality looks (0.066 xG per shot vs. 0.049) with 9 rebound opportunities — all for naught. This should have been a Kraken victory.

Instead, Y. Askarov stopped 3.62 goals above expectation. He made 29 saves on 30 shots with a 0.967 save percentage, surrendering only his expected output on high-danger chances: 92% on 12 HD shots. San Jose's goaltending wall held Seattle at arm's length.

The Kraken's collapse at the other end sealed the heist. J. Daccord gave up 3.09 goals above expected on just 20 shots (0.750 SV%), while M. Murray saw three shots and stopped two. Seattle's expected goals advantage meant nothing when they needed it most.

San Jose escaped with a smash-and-grab thanks to ruthless transition play: 4 goals from 21 rush chances, converting positional disadvantage into victory. Tyler Toffoli's wrist shot from the high slot at 3:54 of the third period exemplified their efficiency.

M. Celebrini (1G, 2A) led the assault; J. Klingberg (1G, 1A) and W. Smith (1G, 1A) added finishing touches.

The Kraken are favored at 51% win probability in a game the models project to land near 2.4-2.5 goals. This is as close to a pick'em as hockey gets.

That near-parity reflects the teams' underlying numbers. San Jose holds an edge in shot quality, with a 48.0% expected goals share against Seattle's 46.0%, and a similar small advantage in Corsi at 47.0% to 45.0%. Yet Seattle's PDO sits at 1.011—the Kraken are converting better than their shot metrics suggest—while the Sharks' 0.998 indicates they're underperforming their own chance creation.

Recent context tilts the scales. San Jose is -5 on goal differential over its last 10 games, meaning the team's underlying edge has yet to materialize into wins.

Pavol Regenda was San Jose's primary scoring threat on paper: 1.10 expected goals per 60, 5 goals, 2 high-danger chances, 16.1% shooting. He's marked inactive for this matchup. Igor Chernyshov inherits the load with 0.91 xG/60, 6 goals, 8 assists, and 15.0% shooting. Seattle counters with Shane Wright (0.77 xG/60, 8 goals, 10 assists, 4 high-danger chances) and Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6 goals, 8 assists, 5 HD goals), representing the Kraken's depth scoring punch.

J. Daccord is on the back-to-back, creating the added variable of either a backup or a fatigued starter between the pipes.