Ducks steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play
The Ducks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.23–4.71 and won anyway.
The underlying story
Anaheim won 4–3 in overtime despite losing the xG battle 4.71–3.23. The Golden Knights controlled 59% of expected goals at 5v5—they should have won.
The Golden Knights dominated possession. They held 57% of shot attempts and 39 shots to Anaheim's 29, but precision and goaltending betrayed them. P. Mrazek (ANA) stopped 36 of 39 shots with a 0.923 save percentage, saving 1.71 goals above expected. A. Schmid (VGK) made 25 of 29 saves at 0.862, underperforming his xG by 0.77. The gap between what each team created and what it scored was the margin of the game.
The Golden Knights stumbled on high-danger chances—0 for 5 on prime scoring opportunities. Anaheim finished 5 for 5. Vegas was lethal on the rush with 2 goals on 34 chances, but Anaheim converted at a higher rate: 3 goals on 27 attempts. Jacob Trouba's backhander from the doorstep at 04:28 of overtime sealed it.
The danger ladder
ANA went 3-for-12 from medium danger on 1.34 expected goals — 1.7 above expected.
Finishing vs expected
ANA finished +0.8 against expected, VGK -1.7 — P. Mrazek (ANA) saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: ANA went 0-for-19, VGK 0-for-24. ANA scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
- ANA stole this one. VGK owned 59% of the xG and lost.
- P. Mrazek (ANA) stopped 1.7 goals above expected.
- VGK couldn't convert — 0/5 on high-danger chances. That won't happen often.
- VGK was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 34 rush chances.
- ANA was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 27 rush chances.
- VGK created 4 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- ANA created 6 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- VGK underperformed xG by 1.7 — wasted quality chances.
- P. Mrazek (ANA) saved 1.7 goals above expected — stole the show.
- P. Mrazek was a wall on HD chances — 100% SV on 5 high-danger shots.