L. Thompson stands tall as the Capitals edge the Hurricanes
The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.78–4.67 and won anyway.
The underlying story
The Capitals won 4-1 despite trailing in expected goals 3.78–4.67. Carolina controlled 55% of the xG at 5v5 and 52% of shot attempts (31–28). They had the chances; Washington converted.
L. Thompson's performance redefined the game. He made 30 of 31 saves (0.968 SV%) and posted +3.67 against expected, turning a dominant xG advantage for the Hurricanes into a lopsided defeat. The Capitals were clinical: 3 for 5 on high-danger chances (60%) and 2 goals on the rush.
The Hurricanes' wasted chances told the story. They underperformed their 4.67 xG by 3.67 goals. High-danger chances finished 8–5 in their favor. F. Andersen stopped 24 of 27 (0.889 SV%, +0.78 vs expected), but he inherited a losing situation that his save percentage couldn't overcome.
The turning point came early in the third period at 19:29, when Alex Ovechkin's wrist shot from the wing broke through and widened the gap. From there, the Capitals controlled the high-danger zone and the transition game simultaneously—a rare alignment that Carolina's defense couldn't manage.
The danger ladder
CAR went 0-for-20 from medium danger on 2.19 expected goals — 2.2 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
WSH finished +0.2 against expected, CAR -3.7 — L. Thompson (WSH) saved 3.7 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Snap shots carried the volume: WSH went 2-for-9, CAR 1-for-30. WSH scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
- WSH stole this one. CAR owned 55% of the xG and lost.
- L. Thompson (WSH) stopped 3.7 goals above expected.
- WSH was clinical in the high-danger zone — 3/5 on HD chances (60%).
- WSH was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 23 rush chances.
- CAR underperformed xG by 3.7 — wasted quality chances.
- L. Thompson (WSH) saved 3.7 goals above expected — stole the show.