Columbus built a stronger offense on paper—3.63 expected goals versus New York's 3.31—yet lost 2-1 in a shootout. The underlying game was close; high-danger chances split 4-4, but the Jackets' shot quality was sharper: 0.065 expected goals per shot versus 0.043 for the Rangers.

New York won the shot-attempt count, 33-27, but that margin masks what Columbus did better—generating fewer, deadlier chances. The Jackets crashed the net hard, creating four rebound opportunities and converting one. They wasted it anyway, underperforming their xG by 2.63 goals. The Rangers underperformed theirs by 1.31.

I. Shesterkin was the difference. The Rangers goalie posted a 0.963 save percentage on 27 shots and outperformed his expected output by 2.63 goals—stealing this game when his team's offense couldn't. J. Greaves kept Columbus in it with a 0.970 save percentage, besting his expected mark by 2.31 goals, but it wasn't enough.

J.T. Miller ended it. His shootout snap shot from a sharp angle gave New York the margin the underlying play didn't.

The model projects this matchup at 2.3–2.6 goals, with the Blue Jackets favored at 55% win probability. The underlying numbers explain why. Columbus controls the 5v5 play decisively: 52.0% expected goals versus 48.0% for New York, a gap that also shows up in possession (51.0% Corsi% to 49.0%). The Rangers' slight PDO edge (1.009 to 1.003) isn't enough to offset the underlying deficit.

The goaltending situation deserves scrutiny. J. Greaves enters on a back-to-back, which could mean either a backup start or a fatigued starter.

Columbus's group is dangerous in the right ways. Boone Jenner leads with 11 goals and 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes, including two high-danger goals at a 9.6% shooting rate. Mathieu Olivier adds 12 goals and 0.89 xG/60, with one high-danger goal at 13.3% shooting. New York's Adam Sykora has 3 goals and 0.91 xG/60 despite zero high-danger goals, at 20.0% shooting; Gabe Perreault (8 goals, 0.79 xG/60, two high-danger goals, 13.1% shooting) offers secondary depth.

Both teams lack a high-danger goal rate or rebound goal rate (0% each), but Columbus's underlying edge in shot volume and quality should prove decisive. New York's defensive weak link is Vincent Iorio; Columbus's is Conor Garland. The model's lean reflects a fundamental advantage in the play itself.