Boston put 30 shots on goal, Carolina 32, giving the Bruins 48% of shot attempts—yet they lost 3–1 to a team that won where it mattered: expected goals. Carolina controlled 61% of 5v5 xG at 4.13 to 2.62, a margin that aligns perfectly with the scoreboard.

The Bruins' five high-danger chances looked promising versus Carolina's four, but conversion told a different story. The Hurricanes buried 2 of 4 high-danger looks (50%) while Boston underperformed their xG by 1.62—a 1.62-goal shortfall that turned volume into defeat.

Goaltending couldn't bridge the gap. P. Kochetkov (CAR) saved 1.62 goals above expected, while J. Swayman (BOS) saved 1.13 above expected despite allowing three. Swayman's 0.906 save percentage was solid, but shot quality predicts results faster than variance. The Hurricanes engineered dangerous chances; Boston engineered volume.

Carolina's rush attack was clinical: two goals off forty chances. Riley Tufte's snap shot from the doorstep at 19:50 of the third sealed what xG had already decided.

The model projects a 2.8-2.5 Hurricanes victory with Carolina favored at 56% win probability. The edge stems from two distinct advantages: Carolina's superiority in underlying play and regression bearing down on Boston's inflated goal-scoring efficiency.

The Hurricanes control the underlying metrics decisively. Carolina registers 56.0% 5v5 expected goals to Boston's 47.0%, indicating substantially higher offensive quality. Territorial dominance compounds the advantage — a 60.0% Corsi split means the Hurricanes dictate possession, translating it into scoring chances at a much higher rate than the Bruins.

PDO regression is the second lever. Boston runs hot at 1.023, with goals outpacing expected production, and should expect some regression. Carolina runs cold at 0.984, tracking below expectation, and is due for positive regression. Both converge toward equilibrium. The Hurricanes benefit from superior process and mean reversion working in the same direction.

Carolina's scoring load centers on Jackson Blake, who carries 1.06 xG/60 alongside 14 goals and 19 assists. His 10.9% shooting rate indicates elite finishing; he has converted 2 high-danger chances into goals. Seth Jarvis operates at 0.98 xG/60 with 17 goals and 12 assists, posting 11.9% shooting and 1 high-danger goal — tracking slightly above league norms in efficiency.

Boston's Viktor Arvidsson matches Blake's intensity at 1.04 xG/60 with 18 goals, 24 assists, and 2 high-danger goals. His 13.0% shooting percentage suggests output running close to expectation, not buoyed by luck. Tanner Jeannot (0.75 xG/60, 6 goals, 14 assists, 8.3% shooting) presents a lower-volume threat but has still converted 2 high-danger chances.

The defensive vulnerabilities — Charles Alexis Legault for Carolina and Elias Lindholm for Boston — matter in tight play but don't alter the underlying picture. Carolina's process edge combined with regressive pressure on Boston's efficiency gives the Hurricanes the model's lean.