The Blackhawks dominated the Flames 5-2, yet expected goals finished 2.57–2.34—a far tighter contest than the scoreboard suggested.

This wasn't dominance by underlying metrics. Chicago held 52% of shot attempts (23–21 on goal) and 52% of expected goals. They outshot Calgary marginally. But Chicago finished ruthlessly, converting at an elite rate. D. Wolf struggled in net, posting a 0.818 save percentage—1.4 goals worse than expected.

A. Soderblom stopped 19 of 21 for a 0.905 mark. Chicago's rush finishing was devastating: four goals on 23 attempts versus Calgary's two on 19.

Connor Bedard scored three goals in 20:01, driving the Chicago attack. R. Andersson answered for Calgary with a goal and assist, while O. Moore added a goal and assist for Chicago. Bedard's individual output proved decisive.

The underlying possession and shot metrics favored Chicago modestly. What separated the teams was finishing. Chicago overperformed their expected goals by 2.43, a substantial margin driven by clinical execution. Calgary, despite generating more high-danger opportunities (three to two), couldn't convert.

The model favors Calgary at 52%, but barely. A projected 2.6-2.5 game lands this squarely in pick'em territory.

Calgary owns the underlying play. At 5v5, they're generating 47.0% expected goals to Chicago's 42.0%, and leading 49.0% in Corsi to the Hawks' 46.0%. But the Flames are down 5 goals over their last 10 with a 0.985 PDO—well below neutral. That's the regression edge: they're playing better than their recent results suggest.

The Flames' output comes from Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato. Coleman operates at 0.89 expected goals per 60 with 16 goals and 12 assists, including 2 high-danger goals on 11.4% shooting. Coronato is at 0.80 xG/60 with 10 goals and 16 assists on 6.6% shooting.

Chicago leans on Tyler Bertuzzi and Connor Bedard. Bertuzzi sits at 0.85 xG/60 with 20 goals and 15 assists, 7 high-danger goals, and 18.0% shooting. Bedard is at 0.82 xG/60 with 17 goals and 27 assists, 5 high-danger goals on 11.8% shooting.

Calgary has the structural advantage and positive regression ahead. But Chicago's individual heat—Bertuzzi and Bedard executing at high rates—narrows the gap. The model's coin flip reflects that tension.