Columbus's overtime victory reflected their clear superiority in underlying play. Z. Werenski orchestrated a 57% expected-goals advantage from the blue line with three assists, anchored by an 8-3 high-danger-chance edge. CBJ's shot quality exceeded Toronto's — 0.060 xG per attempt versus 0.039. They capitalized with three goals on 26 rush chances.

Toronto's shot volume (49% of attempts) masked a critical weakness: only 43% of expected goals. They generated pressure without consequence. J. Tavares scored and assisted in defeat, but Toronto never generated the dangerous chances needed to overcome their quality deficit.

Both J. Greaves and J. Woll played above their expected levels, compressing the 3.76–2.83 xG split into a single-goal margin. Elite goaltending kept the scoreline tighter than underlying play justified.

A. Fantilli scored the game-winner at 04:21 of overtime with a wrist shot from the doorstep, rewarding Columbus's dominance. Werenski's playmaking and CBJ's lethal finishing on the rush proved the decisive difference.

The model projects a 2.6–2.5 CBJ victory with the Blue Jackets at 53% win probability. This is as close to even as the metrics get.

Columbus owns the underlying play. At 5v5, the Blue Jackets generate 52.0% expected goals to Toronto's 46.0%—a real advantage. Corsi backs this up at 51.0% to 45.0%, suggesting the Blue Jackets should control territorial possession. But Columbus is -7 in goal differential over their last 10 games, meaning recent results have diverged from what the play suggests. Neither team has been helped by unusual puck luck: Columbus's PDO sits at 1.003, Toronto's at 1.002, both neutral.

Both starting goaltenders arrive on back-to-backs, which creates unpredictability around who takes the crease. Either E. Merzlikins or J. Woll might be replaced by a backup, depending on how each team manages rest.

The matchup tilts toward Columbus's depth. Boone Jenner has compiled 11 goals and 21 assists on 0.98 xG/60, with two high-danger markers on a 9.6% shooting rate—efficiency that suggests he's getting chances where teams actually lose playoff games. Mathieu Olivier has scored 12 goals on a blistering 13.3% shooting rate, though his 0.89 xG/60 means some regression is likely coming.

Toronto counters with volume. Auston Matthews leads at 1.10 xG/60, with 17 goals and 13 assists on a 10.6% clip. John Tavares has posted 15 goals and 24 assists at 0.91 xG/60 on a 12.4% clip, with three high-danger goals providing a steadier secondary threat.

The real edge is Columbus's puck play. Toronto's metrics lag meaningfully, yet the team remains dangerous because of personnel. Neither team figures to blow the other out. A one-goal game wouldn't surprise anyone looking at these numbers.