The expected goals were 67-33 in Vegas' favor, but the score was 4-3 for Ottawa. That's a heist.

Vegas controlled the ice. They fired 35 shots on net to Ottawa's 22 and held 61 percent of shot attempts. Their efficiency was sharper: 0.086 expected goals per shot against Ottawa's 0.048. High-danger chances finished 9-3. The Golden Knights generated 5.39 expected goals to Ottawa's 2.62 and still left empty-handed.

L. Ullmark, Ottawa's goaltender, is why. He stopped 2.39 goals above expected, posting a 0.914 save percentage on 35 shots faced. A. Schmid in Vegas salvaged 19 saves on 22 shots at 0.864 SV%.

The rush game was a split: Vegas scored twice on 36 attempts, Ottawa twice on 24. Quality matters more than volume. Vegas converted when it counted; Ottawa capitalized when it shouldn't have.

Shane Pinto's wrist shot from the slot in the shootout sent Vegas home with nothing. Vegas controlled 67 percent of expected goals and still found itself in overtime. That shouldn't happen, and it rarely does to better teams.

The model projects a 2.4–2.4 game with the Golden Knights at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

At five-on-five, Ottawa owns a 56.0% expected goals share and a 53.0% Corsi percentage—both advantages. Vegas counters with 54.0% xG% and 52.0% Corsi%, nearly matching the Senators' process edge. The difference between these teams, in short, is marginal enough that short-term variance will decide this.

Vegas's recent results back that out. The Golden Knights are -5 in goal differential over their last ten, suggesting they've played above their true talent. Their PDO of 0.983 is running cold and due for positive regression. Ottawa's 0.993 leaves them closer to neutral; they haven't been saved or burned by luck quite as severely.

Both goalies face a back-to-back. C. Lindbom starts for Ottawa, L. Meriläinen for Vegas—watch for a tired starter or a backup called up, either of which tilts the leverage game.

The real separation lives in special talent. Brady Tkachuk carries 1.19 expected goals per 60 minutes and has converted at 7.5%, already a 2-HD-goal performer. Dylan Cozens sits at 1.00 xG/60 with a 9.5% shooting rate and 13 goals, suggesting room to regress or to stay hot depending on which night shows up. For Vegas, Brandon Saad generates 0.91 xG/60 on a 4.1% finish and Tomas Hertl posts 0.88 xG/60 at 4.3%—both well below league average, both capable of correction in either direction.

Defensively, Ottawa's structural weak link is Nick Jensen; Vegas's is Rasmus Andersson. Against a Tkachuk capable of 1.19 xG/60, that matters. Against a Saad running at half-league shooting rate, it matters less.

What decides this game is which team's luck flips first. Vegas is due; Ottawa is hovering near true talent. That slight tilt toward positive regression in Vegas, combined with Tkachuk's elite scoring threat and Ottawa's defensive exposure, keeps this as close to even as the model says: a coin flip with the Golden Knights holding the marginally better case.