The St. Louis Blues escaped Ottawa with a 4-3 win despite conceding a 7-3 high-danger chance disadvantage. Expected goals split 3.51 to 3.68, marginal—the underlying play was nearly even, yet the Blues scored more.

J. Binnington's goaltending was decisive. He stopped 25 of 28 shots (0.893 SV%) and outperformed his expected save percentage by +0.68 goals. L. Meriläinen saved 27 of 31 (0.871 SV%), slightly below par. That margin—roughly two-thirds of a goal—tilted the outcome.

The Blues controlled possession at 52% shot attempts (31-28 on goal). Both teams converted 2 rush chances off 23 and 22 attempts respectively. St. Louis generated 6 rebound opportunities and converted 2; Ottawa created 7 and converted 1. The difference came down to execution in tight moments.

Matthew Kessel's backhander from the doorstep (P3, 09:19) was the turning point.

Three Stars:

• #85 J. Sanderson (OTT) — 1A in 27:18
• #6 P. Broberg (STL) — 1A in 24:53
• #12 S. Pinto (OTT) — 1G in 20:50

The model projects this as a 2.5–2.3 game favoring Ottawa, with the Senators at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as competitive hockey allows.

The Senators own the underlying play. At 5v5, Ottawa generates 56.0% of shot quality while holding St. Louis to 49.0%—a margin that compounds over sixty minutes. Corsi tells the same story: 53.0% for the Senators against 48.0% for the Blues. When one team commands both shot quality and territorial control, the outcome usually follows.

But St. Louis isn't powerless. The Blues run a PDO of 1.000, converting chances at exactly the rate the model expects, while Ottawa sits at 0.993—a small cool streak. In a single game, that variance can matter.

Goaltending adds uncertainty. J. Binnington operates on the back-to-back—watch for a backup start or a tired starter. The same applies to L. Ullmark. Fatigue or a platoon decision could swing the balance.

The forward matchups define the ceiling. Brady Tkachuk drives Ottawa's engine at 1.19 xG/60 with 11 goals, 20 assists, and 2 high-danger goals, though his 7.5% shooting rate leaves upside. Dylan Cozens operates at 1.00 xG/60 with 13 goals, 15 assists, and 1 high-danger goal; at 9.5% shooting, he's running hot. St. Louis counters with Jimmy Snuggerud at 0.86 xG/60 (15 goals, 22 assists, 2 high-danger goals, 11.9% shooting) and Dylan Holloway at 0.82 xG/60 (13 goals, 24 assists, 1 high-danger goal, 10.8% shooting).

Both teams show concerning trends at the margins. Each posts 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate, meaning neither has translated volume into secondary chances. Defensively, Nick Jensen represents Ottawa's weak link, while Jimmy Snuggerud is St. Louis's.

The underlying metrics favor Ottawa without qualification. The Senators control both shot quality and territory. But their 53% win probability isn't conviction; it's acknowledgment of how thin this margin is. St. Louis owns the quality-of-finish argument: the Blues convert at par while the Senators run cool. A goalie duel or back-to-back fatigue could flip the script.

This is a game where structure points one direction and variance refuses to be ruled out. Ottawa should win, but St. Louis's close enough to punch through. The model agrees—barely.