Maple Leafs run the Panthers off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Maple Leafs earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
The Maple Leafs beat the Panthers 4–1, and the scoreboard understated Toronto's dominance. The real gap wasn't shot volume—Florida had 46% of shot attempts—but shot quality. Toronto controlled 62% of expected goals, while the Panthers generated just 38%, an eight-point gap that exposed how few dangerous chances they actually created.
Toronto's edges came from two places. The Leafs posted an expected goal rate of 0.072 per shot; Florida managed 0.041, meaning Toronto found the dangerous ice repeatedly while Florida fired from distance. On the rush, Toronto converted at a lethal clip: three goals on 28 chances.
The goalies told different stories. J. Woll stopped 25 of 26 and saved 1.58 goals above expected—stole the show. S. Bobrovsky saved 1.29 above expected, but the Panthers underperformed their expected goals by 1.58 regardless. Woll's excellence compounded a qualitative gulf.
John Tavares's wrist shot from the slot (19:41, third period) was the turning point.
Three Stars
- #28 T. Stecher (TOR) — 1G, 1A in 24:26
- #74 B. McMann (TOR) — 2A in 13:34
- #81 D. Joshua (TOR) — 1G, 1A in 11:07
The danger ladder
FLA went 0-for-8 from medium danger on 0.86 expected goals — 0.9 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
TOR finished -0.3 against expected, FLA -1.6 — J. Woll (TOR) saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Snap shots carried the volume: TOR went 0-for-24, FLA 0-for-13. TOR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
- FLA had the shot volume but the chances weren't dangerous.
- J. Woll (TOR) stopped 1.6 goals above expected.
- TOR had the higher quality looks — 0.072 xG/shot vs 0.041.
- TOR was lethal off the rush — 3 goals on 28 rush chances.
- TOR created 4 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- FLA underperformed xG by 1.6 — wasted quality chances.
- J. Woll (TOR) saved 1.6 goals above expected — stole the show.