The Ducks won 4-1, but the Rangers owned the shot-attempt edge. New York held 51% of attempts (27–26), yet got routed — a disconnect that reveals how badly quality diverged from volume.

The Ducks operated on a different plane of efficiency. High-danger chances went 7–3, and expected goals finished 3.98–3.27, a 55–45 split. More damaging: Anaheim's rush game was lethal. The Ducks converted 3 goals on 24 rush attempts, a conversion rate that exploits turnover-heavy systems. The Rangers couldn't adapt.

L. Dostal made the difference. He saved 2.27 goals above expected on 26 of 27 shots (a 0.963 save percentage) — goaltending that wins close games. But this wasn't close. I. Shesterkin, by contrast, faced better looks and had no margin for error.

The real gap: New York collapsed against its own expected goals. The Rangers generated 3.27 xG but scored one goal, underperforming by 2.27. The Ducks got similar looks and converted them. That asymmetry — Rangers generating and wasting; Ducks generating and burying — is what turned a close expected-goal game into a rout.

Pavel Mintyukov's snap shot from the high slot felt like the inflection point, though by then Anaheim's rush dominance had already won the game.

The model gives Anaheim a 51% win probability in a contest it projects as essentially even: 2.6 expected goals for the Ducks, 2.5 for the Rangers. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Anaheim owns the underlying play. The Ducks drive 52.0% of expected goals at 5v5 and 52.0% of shot attempts—territorial tilt that puts them in position to score first and control play. Yet the Rangers' goaltender I. Shesterkin faces a back-to-back assignment. Watch for a tired starter or a bench appearance; either way, it's a variable.

The Ducks' advantage rests partly on a PDO of 0.981—a signature of bad luck in finishing and goaltending. They are running cold, and regression toward their underlying talent should follow. Rangers carry a PDO of 1.009, a mirror problem: they've outperformed their process and may regress downward.

Beckett Sennecke drives Anaheim's offense at 1.03 expected goals per 60 minutes with 20 goals, 8 of them from high-danger territory. His 13.5% shooting percentage signals both current danger and future downward correction. Cutter Gauthier (0.99 xG/60, 25G, 12.9% shooting) pairs effectively. The Rangers counter with Adam Sykora (0.91 xG/60, 3G, 20.0% shooting) and Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60, 8G, 13.1% shooting)—clearly a tier below in both volume and efficiency.

Both teams carry an absurd 0% rate on high-danger goals and rebounds. This statistical improbability suggests either data quirks or variance so extreme that normalization is inevitable. Whoever capitalizes on second chances will have a significant edge.

Mason McTavish is Anaheim's defensive weak link. Vincent Iorio holds that distinction for New York.