Hurricanes run the Predators off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Hurricanes earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
The Hurricanes rolled past the Predators 4-1 on a 4.85–2.86 expected-goals margin, but Nashville underperformed by 1.86 goals—the largest disconnect between shot quality and outcome. Had the Predators converted at expected rates, they'd have scored closer to three goals.
The Hurricanes controlled play across every metric: 37–26 shot attempts (NSH held 41%), 0.069 xG/shot to 0.052, and 6–3 high-danger chances. P. Kochetkov recorded 25 saves on 26 shots (0.962 SV%), outperforming expectations by 1.86 goals. J. Saros made 33 saves on 36 shots (0.917 SV%), also beating his expected save percentage by 1.85 goals.
Nashville created six rebound opportunities (1 converted) and attacked the net more effectively than the shot totals suggest. Carolina's three rebound chances (1 converted) mattered less when their shot quality was so superior. The underlying data backed the final scoreline almost perfectly—the Predators simply couldn't finish.
The danger ladder
NSH went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.56 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
CAR finished -0.8 against expected, NSH -1.9 — P. Kochetkov (CAR) saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: CAR went 2-for-27, NSH 1-for-26.
- P. Kochetkov (CAR) stopped 1.9 goals above expected.
- CAR had the higher quality looks — 0.069 xG/shot vs 0.052.
- NSH created 6 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- CAR created 3 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- NSH underperformed xG by 1.9 — wasted quality chances.
- P. Kochetkov (CAR) saved 1.9 goals above expected — stole the show.
- J. Saros (NSH) saved 1.9 goals above expected — stole the show.