Tampa Bay won 5-4 in a shootout, but Montreal controlled the underlying game. Expected goals favored the Canadiens 5.31–4.62, and they outshot Tampa 35–21.

J. Johansson (TBL) made the difference. The Lightning goalie posted a 0.886 save percentage and finished +1.31 versus expected, stealing a win his team didn't quite earn at even strength. Montreal's J. Fowler held the line at +0.62, but couldn't overcome his team's conversion failures.

The Canadiens dominated in volume. They took 35 shots to Tampa's 21 and were more dangerous on the rush—four goals from 33 chances versus Tampa's two from 23. High-danger chances went nearly even (8 vs 10 for the Lightning).

But Montreal squandered its volume. Two goals came from low-danger spots—chances a goalie must stop. Seven rebound opportunities generated zero conversions. A team doesn't overcome the underlying advantage when it can't convert.

Brayden Point's snap shot from the slot decided the shootout.

The model gives Tampa Bay a 57% win probability, projecting a 2.3–2.8 Lightning victory. That confidence rests on Tampa's dominance in play generation.

The Lightning control 5v5 expected goals at 54.0% to Montreal's 48.0%—a structural edge in chance quality. That translates to shot volume: Tampa's 53.0% Corsi rate to Montreal's 49.0% means the Lightning dictate pace and territory.

But both teams are running hot. Tampa's PDO sits at 1.019, Montreal's at 1.018. They're converting chances faster than underlying play predicts, which means regression looms for both.

Montreal's offensive weight falls on Cole Caufield, who generates 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes and has 33 goals and 16 assists on a 20.0% shooting rate. His production includes just 1 high-danger goal—oddly efficient. Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19 goals, 12 assists at 17.8% shooting) is secondary but has 4 high-danger goals, suggesting he's been finishing at the paint.

Tampa counters with Brandon Hagel leading at 1.10 xG/60—23 goals, 26 assists, 15.8% shooting, 2 high-danger goals. Anthony Cirelli (0.95 xG/60, 15 goals, 18 assists, 17.0% shooting) has 5 high-danger goals, meaning more of his scoring comes from dangerous chances.

The model favors Tampa's structural advantages. The PDO numbers predict one or both teams regress. If regression hits Montreal first, Tampa's edge widens. If it hits both simultaneously, this stays competitive.

Defensively, Montreal has Mike Matheson as a weak link; Tampa has Victor Hedman. Watch how each team's stars are deployed against those spots.