Expected goals nearly split even (48–52), yet high-danger chances favored the Lightning 6–4. Both teams excelled on the rush—Anaheim with 3 goals on 26 chances, Tampa with 4 on 30—showing the competitive level of play. D. Raddysh's wrist shot from the slot at 2:47 of overtime delivered the deciding goal.

Anaheim's shot volume nearly matched Tampa's: the Ducks held 49% of shot attempts (28–29 on goal). A. Vasilevskiy's 0.893 save percentage outpaced L. Dostal's 0.862, a gap too narrow to hand the Lightning a comfortable margin. The Ducks' precision in dangerous areas kept them within reach.

Three Stars

• B. Hagel (TBL) — 3A in 19:14
• D. Raddysh (TBL) — 1G, 1A in 26:08
• N. Kucherov (TBL) — 1G, 1A in 18:29

The model projects a 2.6–2.7 goal game with the Ducks at 51% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as it gets.

Recent form diverges sharply. The Lightning are 6-3-1 in their last 10—the hotter team by points pace. The Ducks carry -15 goal differential over the same stretch, yet underlying metrics nearly erase the gap. The Lightning hold marginal edges in both expected goals (54.0% to 52.0%) and shot attempt share (53.0% to 52.0%), which is not enough to explain the form gap entirely. That gap—the Lightning's recent surge versus the Ducks' cold stretch—looks like volatility breaking in Tampa's favor rather than a fundamental talent disparity.

The regression math tilts slightly Anaheim. The Ducks' 0.981 PDO reads as a team running cold, due for positive variance; the Lightning's 1.019 PDO is running hot and likely to regress. That's a small edge in the variance alone.

The Ducks also own a rest advantage—one day of rest versus the Lightning's three. L. Dostal faces a back-to-back, which creates assignment risk; watch whether the Ducks lean on a backup or ask their starter to push through.

Scoring will depend on Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli for Tampa Bay. Hagel posts 1.10 xG/60 with 23 goals and a 15.8% shooting rate, though his high-danger work (2 goals) lags his volume. Cirelli clocks 0.95 xG/60 but owns a 17.0% shooting rate—more efficient relative to his chances. For Anaheim, Beckett Sennecke operates at 1.03 xG/60 with 20 goals and a team-leading 8 high-danger goals. Cutter Gauthier brings 25 goals from 0.99 xG/60 but owns just 2 high-danger tallies, so his scoring leans on secondary chances.

Victor Hedman is the Lightning's defensive weak link; Mason McTavish fills that role for Anaheim. In a game this tight, those gaps will be tested.