Edmonton's 6-2 victory was backed by overwhelming underlying numbers. The Oilers controlled 72% of 5v5 expected goals (6.41–2.49) and 62% of shot attempts (43–26). More telling: Edmonton generated 0.085 expected goals per shot to Nashville's 0.042. The Oilers dominated both volume and quality—the latter gap alone explains the lopsided result.

Edmonton created 12 high-danger chances to Nashville's 3. Connor McDavid's snap shot from the slot in the third period (19:03) was the turning point. McDavid finished with 3 goals in 22:28. L. Draisaitl added 1 goal and 2 assists, and V. Podkolzin contributed 2 assists.

The save totals reflected the possession gap. J. Saros faced 43 shots and stopped 37 (0.860 SV%). C. Ingram stopped 24 of 26 (0.923 SV%). Edmonton converted 4 goals on 41 rush chances and 2 of 6 rebound opportunities. Nashville managed 1 of 3.

The model projects 2.5–2.7 goals per team with Edmonton at 55% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Edmonton owns the underlying play decisively: 52.0% expected goals to Nashville's 49.0% at 5v5. The Oilers' PDO sits at 0.982, running cold against Nashville's 0.992. When a team generates chances but converts at below-average rates, positive regression is waiting. The teams split the corsi wars evenly at 50.0% each.

Nashville's offense rests on Zachary L'Heureux (0.85 xG/60, 4 goals, 16.0% shooting) and Filip Forsberg (0.80 xG/60, 23 goals, 17 assists, 13.6% shooting). Zach Hyman (1.23 xG/60, 14 goals, 13 assists) and Connor McDavid (0.92 xG/60, 25 goals, 33 assists, 13.7% shooting) out-generate them. Jonathan Marchessault is Nashville's defensive liability; Jake Walman is Edmonton's.

Both teams sit at 0% high-danger goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate—neither has solved second-chance finishing. The model has seen enough to give Edmonton 55%.