Red Wings run the Senators off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Red Wings earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
Detroit won 4-3 in overtime. The Red Wings dominated the expected-goals battle, controlling 61% (5.18–3.36), and out-attempted Ottawa 34–22. Yet they underperformed their xG by 1.18 goals because J. Reimer stopped 1.2 more than expected.
Execution on the rush and power play separated the teams. On the rush, Detroit scored 2 goals on 33 chances; Ottawa scored 2 on 24 (a more efficient rate). On the power play, Detroit was ruthless — 2 goals on 24 shots (3.05 xG) — while Ottawa managed 2 for 8 (0.70 xG). Detroit also converted two low-danger situations, where the opposing goaltender must be sharp. J. Gibson finished 19 of 22 saves.
A. DeBrincat won it with a snap shot from the high slot at 00:36 of overtime, finishing 1–1 in 23:14. A. Copp added two assists in 19:51. D. Batherson recorded 1–1 for Ottawa in 14:37.
The danger ladder
DET went 1-for-8 from high danger on 2.58 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
OTT finished -0.4 against expected, DET -1.2 — J. Reimer (OTT) saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: OTT went 0-for-16, DET 1-for-27. OTT scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
- J. Reimer (OTT) stopped 1.2 goals above expected.
- Open game — 15 high-danger chances combined (DET 8, OTT 7).
- DET scored 2 goals from low-danger spots — the opposing goalie needs to have those.
- DET was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 33 rush chances.
- OTT was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 24 rush chances.
- DET created 6 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- DET power play was dominant — 2 PPG on 24 PP shots (3.05 xG).
- OTT power play was dominant — 2 PPG on 8 PP shots (0.70 xG).