Winnipeg stole this one. The Jets beat St. Louis 3–1 despite ceding 57% of expected goals at 5v5, a margin that should have punished them — instead, E. Comrie's 0.957 save percentage flipped the script.

The Blues generated 3.43 xG to the Jets' 2.55, a gap that translates to roughly one goal's worth of missed opportunity. But St. Louis couldn't finish. They went 0-for-5 on high-danger chances and left five rebound chances unconverted. That wastefulness cost them the game.

Winnipeg's response was ruthless: 2-for-4 on high-danger chances (50%), clinical execution where it mattered most. The Jets also dominated special teams, scoring twice on seven power-play opportunities — both goals from higher-quality looks than the regular 5v5 play suggested they should have.

The turning point came in the third when Mark Scheifele fired a wrist shot from the wing, a moment that reflected the larger dynamic: the Blues had the territory and the chances, but Winnipeg had the killer instinct when it counted.

E. Comrie deserves the lion's share of credit. He stopped 2.4 goals above expected, including a flawless 5-for-5 performance against high-danger attempts. It was the kind of goaltending that swallows a team's process advantage and hands you a win you had no business taking.

The model projects a STL 2.5 - 2.5 WPG game with the Jets at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

St. Louis arrives in worse recent form. The Blues are underwater at -13 goal differential over their last 10, and their underlying numbers offer no relief. At even strength, St. Louis sits at 49.0% xG% and 48.0% Corsi% against Winnipeg's 48.0% xG% and 49.0% Corsi%. Both teams' PDO readings—1.000 for the Blues and 0.998 for the Jets—suggest neither team is running far ahead of what their underlying play warrants.

J. Binnington faces a back-to-back assignment. St. Louis may turn to a backup or deploy Binnington fatigued.

Players to Watch

STL

• Jimmy Snuggerud: 0.86 xG/60, 15G 22A, 2 HD goals, 11.9% shooting
• Dylan Holloway: 0.82 xG/60, 13G 24A, 1 HD goal, 10.8% shooting

WPG

• Nino Niederreiter: 0.87 xG/60, 6G 6A, 3 HD goals, 8.6% shooting
• Kyle Connor: 0.83 xG/60, 25G 30A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting

St. Louis generates 0% HD goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate, identifying Jimmy Snuggerud as a defensive weak link. Winnipeg mirrors the 0% HD goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate with Colin Miller as its vulnerability.

At 51% for Winnipeg, this remains a coin flip. Neither team has separated far enough to reveal a clear edge—just two rosters where marginal execution determines the outcome.