Columbus's 5-3 victory masks how close the underlying play actually was — expected goals finished 4.04–3.91, essentially even. The Blue Jackets' goaltending was the difference.

Shot attempts and high-danger chances both favored Columbus (31–27, 6–5). E. Merzlikins was elite: 0.889 save percentage, +0.91 variance. D. Vladar recorded 0.867.

Mathieu Olivier's wrist shot from the high slot (third period, 18:54) was the turning point.

Columbus capitalized on the rush, converting 4 of 25 chances. Philadelphia crashed the net, generating 5 rebound opportunities but converting only one.

The model calls this a 2.4-2.5 game with Columbus at 53% win probability—a pick'em dressed up in slight-edge clothing.

The Blue Jackets have done the winning recently, posting a 6-4-0 record over their last 10 games, while Philadelphia sits at minus-19 in goal differential over the same stretch.

Both teams' underlying metrics are bunched tight. Columbus edges Philadelphia in expected goals percentage, 52.0% to 51.0%, and holds a more meaningful Corsi advantage at 51.0% to 48.0%—expect the Blue Jackets to spend more time in Philadelphia's end. Their luck numbers are virtually identical: Columbus at 1.003 PDO, Philadelphia at 1.008.

Columbus gets the rest advantage here. The Blue Jackets arrive fresh off three days off, while the Flyers skate in on just one day of rest.

S. Ersson is on a back-to-back; watch for either a backup start or a tired starter.

Owen Tippett drives Philadelphia's attack at 0.88 expected goals per 60 minutes, carrying 19 goals and 18 assists with 2 high-danger goals and a 12.1% shooting percentage. Christian Dvorak, at 0.81 xG/60, has 12 goals and 21 assists, with 3 high-danger goals at 11.2% shooting.

Columbus counters with Boone Jenner at the top of the depth chart: 0.98 xG/60, 11 goals, 21 assists, 2 high-danger goals, 9.6% shooting. Mathieu Olivier sits beneath him at 0.89 xG/60 with 12 goals and 9 assists, 1 high-danger goal, and a notably hot 13.3% shooting percentage.

On defense, Christian Dvorak represents Philadelphia's weak link, while Conor Garland does the same for Columbus. Both teams profile at 0% high-danger and rebound-goal rates—an unusual coincidence that bears monitoring.