The Senators rolled past the Devils 4-1, and the underlying numbers vindicated the scoreboard entirely: Ottawa controlled 69% of 5v5 expected goals (4.31–1.92).

This wasn't a close game at any level. The Senators held 56% of shot attempts (34–27), and the quality gap was even starker: they generated far more dangerous chances, owning 0.080 expected goals per shot versus New Jersey's 0.033. The edge in high-danger chances—nine to three—reflected that dominance.

Shane Pinto's wrist shot from the high slot at 18:41 of the third period marked the turning point.

Where the Devils showed any fight was in their own chance creation. New Jersey generated higher-quality looks than their shot total suggests—they finished with 1.92 expected goals on just 27 attempts. But the goaltending split proved decisive. J. Allen made 30 of 33 saves with a 0.909 save percentage, outperforming expectations by 1.31 goals. L. Ullmark was nearly flawless: 26 of 27 saves at 0.963, plus 0.92 goals over expected.

Ottawa's dominance came from depth and execution. The Senators were lethal off the rush—three goals on 27 rush chances—and their power play was dominant: two goals on five attempts. They crashed the net, creating three rebound opportunities and converting one.

The model projects the Senators to win at 57% probability, with a final score between 2.3 and 2.7 goals for Ottawa. The edge here isn't a mirage — it's rooted in who controls the game.

Ottawa owns the underlying play. The Senators generate 56.0% of expected goals at 5v5, while New Jersey manages just 50.0%. That 6-point spread translates to persistent shot quality over a season; it matters more than individual-game variance. The Corsi picture reinforces it: 53.0% for Ottawa against 51.0% for the Devils, a modest but real advantage in puck possession.

The regression angle cuts the other way. New Jersey's PDO sits at 0.971 — they're running cold, converting fewer goals than their shot quality suggests they should. That's not sustainable. The Senators, meanwhile, operate at 0.993, closer to true talent. When PDO normalizes, the Devils typically improve, but that process takes time, and it's precisely the kind of statistical reversion that live models factor in.

J. Markstrom faces a back-to-back, which introduces a secondary variable: watch whether he starts or New Jersey deploys a backup. A fatigued starter compounds an already difficult matchup for the Devils.

The player-level battle hinges on two forwards. Timo Meier is New Jersey's firepower—1.08 expected goals per 60, 13 goals, 15 assists, and 3 high-danger chances despite a modest 6.7% shooting percentage. Jack Hughes trails in volume at 0.88 xG/60 but makes up ground with elite finishing at 11.5%, collecting 18 goals and 17 assists. Brady Tkachuk is Ottawa's counterargument: 1.19 xG/60, 11 goals, 20 assists, and 2 high-danger goals on 7.5% shooting—a more complete threat in terms of volume and efficiency. Dylan Cozens adds support at 1.00 xG/60 with 13 goals, 15 assists, 1 high-danger goal, and 9.5% shooting.

Neither team generates high-danger or rebound opportunities at remarkable rates. The Devils' defensive liability surfaces in Johnathan Kovacevic, while Nick Jensen represents a similar pressure point for Ottawa. The game will likely be decided not by goaltending variance but by five-on-five execution—territory control, shot placement, and the willingness to attack the high-danger areas.

Everything tilts toward Ottawa: better process, regression tailwinds, and superior personnel depth in the scoring roles. The Senators' 57% win probability is the rational read.