The Avalanche stole this one: Colorado won 5-1 despite Anaheim controlling 58% of expected goals, winning high-danger chances 7-2, and controlling 52% of shot attempts.

S. Wedgewood was the architect of the theft. He stopped 27 of 28 shots (0.964 SV%), outperforming his xG allowance by 2.82 goals—more than the Ducks' margin of defeat. L. Dostal, meanwhile, gave up 2.18 goals above expected on a 26-shot workload, which on that volume is damning.

The turning point was Parker Kelly's wrist shot from the high slot at 10:06 of the third period. From there, Colorado was lethal in transition—four goals on 26 rush chances—while Anaheim went scoreless on high-danger chances despite creating seven of them.

Colorado's finish was ruthless: four goals on 26 rush chances and two low-danger goals that the opposing goalie should have stopped. Anaheim crashed the net effectively, generating five rebound opportunities, but went 0-for-7 on the chances that mattered most.

Variance entirely explained the scoreboard. The Ducks underperformed their xG by 2.82 goals; the Avalanche overperformed by 2.18, converting chances at a rate they shouldn't have. Wedgewood's 2.82-goal outperformance was the decisive swing.

The model projects 2.8 goals for Colorado, 2.7 for Anaheim, with the Avalanche at 52% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Anaheim arrives hot. The Ducks are 8-2-0 in their last 10, a pace that matters when everything else is tight. Colorado carries rest advantage—three days versus Anaheim's one—which typically tilts close games.

Underlying metrics still favor the Avalanche. Colorado generates 57.0% of expected goals at 5v5 versus Anaheim's 52.0%, and controls 57.0% of shot attempts to Anaheim's 52.0%. If this plays to form, Colorado structures the game in their favor.

But PDO tells the opposite story. The Avalanche sit at 1.021—running hot, which means regression often follows. Anaheim is at 0.981—running cold and due for positive bounce. In a coin flip, PDO matters.

L. Dostal is on a back-to-back. Either a backup starts or a tired starter plays; either way, Anaheim carries uncertainty in net.

For Colorado, Artturi Lehkonen is the engine: 1.11 xG per 60 minutes, 18 goals, 22 assists, 6 hard-chance goals on 14.9% shooting. Ross Colton sits just below at 1.10 xG per 60, with 7 goals, 15 assists, and 1 hard-chance goal on 4.9% shooting—suggesting he's been starved of clean chances.

Anaheim counters with Beckett Sennecke (1.03 xG per 60, 20 goals, 19 assists, 8 hard-chance goals, 13.5% shooting) and Cutter Gauthier (0.99 xG per 60, 25 goals, 16 assists, 2 hard-chance goals, 12.9% shooting). Gauthier's volume at 25 goals comes alongside an assists-to-goals ratio suggesting secondary scoring and potential empty-net inflation.

The edge in underlying play belongs to Colorado. The edge in rest belongs to Colorado. Anaheim owns recent form. On paper, that's Colorado's night. But Anaheim's hot streak and Dostal uncertainty create real doubt. That's a genuine coin flip.