A. Stolarz stole this one for Toronto. New Jersey dominated 5v5 play—62% of expected goals (5.93–3.59), 64% of shot attempts (47–27)—yet the Devils' 4-3 shootout victory barely reflects their control. Toronto's goaltender saved 2.93 goals above expected, compressing what should have been a comfortable margin.

Prime chances went to the right team. High-danger opportunities favored New Jersey 12–4, a three-to-one advantage that should have translated to goals. Instead, they underperformed their xG by 1.93 goals, leaving conversions unfinished. That gap nearly cost them the win.

Stolarz was the story. His 0.936 save percentage across 44 saves, including a 92% clip on high-danger attempts, represented the kind of goaltending that steals games. J. Markstrom faced half the volume (24 saves, 0.889 SV%), a byproduct of dominance.

Both teams thrived in transition. New Jersey's pressure showed in the net-crashing department—8 rebound opportunities created, none converted—evidence of relentless offensive pursuit. Toronto mustered 4 rebound chances (1 converted) as New Jersey suffocated play. When Jesper Bratt's backhander from the doorstep ended the shootout, it capped a game decided by New Jersey's control and one goaltender's refusal to quit.

The model favors New Jersey at 56% win probability, projecting a final score in the 2.4-to-2.7-goal range for the Devils.

The edge lives in possession and shot quality. New Jersey controls play at 50.0% 5v5 expected goals and 51.0% Corsi, while Toronto manages just 46.0% xG and 45.0% Corsi. The Devils are the better team — they're simply generating more dangerous looks and pushing opponents around the ice.

What makes this lean sharper: New Jersey's PDO sits at 0.971, a cold-running indicator of goaltending and finish variance that tends to normalize upward. Toronto, meanwhile, has drifted to 1.002, meaning its actual results have tracked close to underlying performance. When PDO regresses, it usually regresses down for teams running lucky — the Devils are primed to regress up. That's a hidden tailwind into this matchup.

The recent form counts against both squads. The Devils are underwater at -11 goal differential over their last 10 games; the Maple Leafs sit at -13. Neither team is playing well right now. What separates them is that New Jersey's poor results mask decent underlying play, while Toronto's underlying metrics have been weak. The Devils look due for correction.

One more layer: the rest advantage. New Jersey enters on four days off; Toronto on one. After a slump, the Devils' extra recovery time becomes valuable — they can execute the system they've built, which their possession numbers suggest works when they're sharp.

There's a complication in the crease. A. Stolarz backs up New Jersey's defense on a back-to-back situation, creating the possibility of a tired starter or a surprise backup deployment. That's a variable to monitor as puck drop approaches.

For Toronto, Auston Matthews carries the offensive load at 1.10 xG per 60 minutes with 17 goals and a 10.6% shooting rate. John Tavares contributes at 0.91 xG/60 with three hard-chance goals this season.

New Jersey centers on Timo Meier, generating 1.08 xG per 60 with three hard-chance goals, and Jack Hughes, who's posted 18 goals despite a 0.88 xG rate. Hughes at 11.5% shooting is running hot relative to his underlying production — regression could matter there.

Toronto's Bo Groulx is the defensive weak link; Johnathan Kovacevic occupies that role for New Jersey. Those vulnerabilities matter when margins are thin.

The model sees Devils by a goal or so, backed by possession and pending PDO correction.