The Blues stole this one. St. Louis won 3-2 despite ceding 58% of expected goals to Seattle—a margin that should have ended in a Kraken victory.

J. Hofer was the difference. The Blues goaltender stopped 34 of 36 shots (0.944 SV%) and saved 2.40 goals above expected, carrying a St. Louis team that looked outmatched in almost every underlying metric. Seattle generated more shot attempts (36–27), more high-danger chances (7–4), and more expected goals (4.40–3.23). None of it mattered.

St. Louis executed ruthlessly in the spots that counted. The Blues converted 2 of 4 high-danger chances—50%, a rate that punishes opponents—and scored twice on 21 rush attempts. Vince Dunn's snap shot from the slot at 13:34 of the third period proved decisive. B. Schenn registered three assists in limited ice time (14:24), setting the stage for the Blues' clinical finishing.

Seattle, meanwhile, wasted a dominant performance. The Kraken created 5 rebound opportunities and converted just one. They underperformed their xG by 2.40 goals, a shortfall that left them chasing a game they should have controlled. P. Grubauer stopped 24 of 27 shots (0.889 SV%), a respectable performance undermined by the team's failure to convert high-percentage chances.

The gap between play and result was stark: Seattle dominated possession and chance creation, yet walked away with nothing. St. Louis played a simpler game and won. This is what heists look like.

The model projects a STL 2.4 - 2.4 SEA game with the Blues at 51% win probability. This is about as close to even as the market gets.

The Blues own a small underlying edge. They're generating 49.0% of expected goals at 5v5 and controlling 48.0% of shot attempts, figures that outpace the Kraken's 46.0% xG% and 45.0% Corsi%. Yet Seattle is the hotter team by points pace, posting a 7-3-0 record over their last ten games.

The Blues carry a rest advantage—three days between games compared to Seattle's one—which normally tips momentum in their favor. But J. Daccord, the Kraken's starting goaltender, is on a back-to-back, and tired starters or an unexpected backup appearance could shift equilibrium.

Watch Jimmy Snuggerud for St. Louis. The forward is generating 0.86 expected goals per 60 minutes of play, has 15 goals and 22 assists, and is shooting at an elevated 11.9%—a rate unlikely to persist but dangerous nonetheless. He's recorded 2 high-danger chances. Dylan Holloway, another Blues scorer, posts similar pressure at 0.82 xG/60 with 13 goals and 24 assists, though his shooting has been slightly more modest at 10.8%.

Seattle counters with Shane Wright at 0.77 xG/60, 8 goals, and 10 assists. His edge lies in efficiency: Wright has generated 4 high-danger chances while maintaining a 10.4% shooting percentage. Berkly Catton, the Kraken's secondary threat, carries a lower volume (0.68 xG/60, 6 goals, 8 assists) but has been uncommonly lethal around the net, posting 5 high-danger chances on an 8.8% shooting rate.

Neither team has scored from high-danger areas or rebounds at 5v5—both at 0%. Snuggerud represents St. Louis's defensive liability; Chandler Stephenson fills that role for Seattle.

The Blues' structural advantage is real but narrow. The Kraken's momentum is harder to quantify but visible in the standings. When the market splits the difference this tightly, you're looking at a genuine coin flip.