Columbus controlled 72% of 5v5 expected goals (4.82–1.88). The 5-2 victory made sense—they earned this one on the shot sheet, not a bounce.

Shot attempts broke 32–18, which meant the Lightning spent the night defending. High-danger chances went 9–2, a ratio that made the result inevitable. Columbus generated 0.093 expected goals per shot; Tampa Bay managed 0.040. The Jackets found prime looks while the Lightning scrounged from the perimeter.

Where Columbus made it stick: two goals on 27 rush chances and a power play that buried 2 on 10 shots for 0.73 expected goals. Efficiency in high-leverage spots.

A. Vasilevskiy saved 27 of 31 (0.871 SV%), a competent effort given the barrage. E. Merzlikins stopped 16 of 18 (0.889 SV%), also solid. But no goalie salvages a team that can't generate chances. The Lightning scored twice from low-danger areas—opportunistic goals that win close games. This wasn't close. Columbus won because they controlled the differential everywhere: shot volume, shot quality, transition speed.

Final: CBJ 5 – TBL 2

The models project a 2.5–2.7 goal game with Tampa Bay at 54% win probability—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find in a matchup this tight.

Columbus brings momentum (6-1-3 in their last 10), but the underlying talent split favors the Lightning. At 5v5, Tampa Bay leads decisively in expected goals at 54.0% xG% compared to Columbus's 52.0%, while also owning a 53.0% to 51.0% edge in Corsi%. Both advantages are narrow but consistent.

The Lightning's PDO of 1.019 reveals the risk: they're running hot on luck and will regress. Columbus at 1.003 suggests a team playing closer to its true talent level. Factor in J. Greaves on a back-to-back—watch the goaltending choice an hour before puck drop.

Boone Jenner drives the Columbus attack at 0.98 xG/60, posting 11 goals and 21 assists with 2 high-danger goals, though his 9.6% shooting rate hints at outperformance. Mathieu Olivier (12 goals, 9 assists, 1 high-danger goal) generates 0.89 xG/60 while shooting 13.3%, a rate that rarely sustains. Defensively, Conor Garland is the liability.

Tampa counters with Brandon Hagel, who combines 1.10 xG/60 with 23 goals, 26 assists, 2 high-danger goals, and a 15.8% shooting rate that holds for his volume. Anthony Cirelli (15 goals, 18 assists, 5 high-danger goals) runs 0.95 xG/60 on 17.0% shooting, scoring consistently from the places that matter. Victor Hedman is their defensive weak link.

Neither team generates efficiently from high-danger or rebound situations—a particular problem for Columbus if Greaves isn't at full strength. The verdict rests on whether recent form trumps underlying talent, or whether shooting percentages hold. With the models this aligned, variance decides the winner.