Expected goals suggested a competitive game — the Ducks generated 4.65, close to the Senators' 5.40. The 2-0 scoreline tells a different story: a shutout in a contest the underlying metrics called nearly even. Goaltending explains the chasm.

L. Ullmark was perfect. The Senators netminder posted 24/24 saves (1.000 SV%, +4.65 vs expected), a line that says he turned high-danger chances into unanswerable chances at a rate the model didn't anticipate. V. Husso faced 28 shots, stopped 26 (0.929 SV%, +3.40), and performed well — yet the Ducks scored zero.

Both offenses cratered on high-danger opportunities. The Senators managed 13 and converted none; the Ducks had 10 and also finished 0-for. The difference: only one goalie had to be flawless.

The Senators' goals came from the high-danger areas they did generate. T. Chabot's wrist shot from the high slot (P2, 09:21) broke the scoreless tie; M. Amadio added a second later. S. Pinto orchestrated much of the offensive movement with two assists in 17:19.

The Ducks found dangerous looks — 10 high-danger chances is a respectable output — but couldn't beat Ullmark. That won't happen often. Neither will a goalie put up a 1.000 SV%. This game existed in the gap between those two truths.

The model backs Ottawa at 55% win probability in a projected 2.5–2.8 goal spread. That's a slim edge, but built on a repeatable advantage: the Senators dominate even-strength play.

Ottawa's 56.0% 5v5 expected goals share crushes Anaheim's 52.0%. The Corsi numbers reinforce it: 53.0% for Ottawa, 52.0% for Anaheim. In shot quality and volume both, Ottawa controls the ice. But there's a variance story in play. Anaheim's 0.981 PDO—goals per shot and save percentage combined—sits well below 1.00, signaling a team running cold and due for positive regression. Ottawa at 0.993 is closer to neutral. When the Ducks' luck returns, the model's margin compresses.

Offensively, Anaheim leans on two threats. Beckett Sennecke's 1.03 xG per 60 minutes is backed by 20G and 19A; he's scored 8 high-danger goals on 13.5% shooting. Cutter Gauthier, at 25G with 0.99 xG/60 and 12.9% shooting, is the secondary source. Ottawa has to account for both.

But Ottawa's tier is cleaner. Brady Tkachuk leads the sheet at 1.19 xG/60 with 11G and 20A—volume production at 7.5% shooting—plus 2 high-danger goals. Dylan Cozens adds secondary punch: 1.00 xG/60, 13G, and 15A on 9.5% shooting. Together they generate more offense than Anaheim's best pair.

Defensively, Mason McTavish is the soft spot for Anaheim; Nick Jensen plays the same role for Ottawa. Both teams generate 0% of their goals from high-danger chances and 0% from rebounds—statistical noise that will correct. When it does, volume determines who runs the variance game.

The Senators' edge is thin. It's also sound.